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For the love of god, there is ZERO CHANCE Michelle Obama has any interest in being President.

Imagine her life for a moment: she wakes up every day in one of her mansions or in the mansion of a wealthy friend, has a full staff of servants and assistants, heads to a private plane for either a jaunt to another mansion or maybe a private island or European castle or maybe to some event to get her ass kissed and receive a giant check for just being her famous fabulous self. She lives better than Louis XIV and has to answer to no one—and she's gonna trade this to negotiate a budget with some greasy reptiles in DC?

Being prez would be a downgrade for her! She aint that stupid.

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Jul 3Liked by Steve Sailer

I think the point would be that she wouldn’t actually do any of the governing; her husband - remember him? - would be President-in-all-but-name, i.e., what is rumored to be the current setup. Assuming for the sake of argument the voters actually matter, I suspect the voting public wouldn’t like this arrangement if they knew, but who’s gonna tell them? The Democrats-fellating press?

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it doesn't matter, there would still be the campaign, the press, playing the role in DC, the effort of maintaining the facade etc—for what?

would you rather be a free princess or a captive politician, especially if you already lived 8 years in the WH?

michelle has never run for office and never will. aint happenin...

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Even the 10am-4pm-with-an-hour-nap President has to put in some working hours and show up at official functions. The whole idea of a figurehead is to free the Power Behind the Throne from any eyes watching their actions. No way could Barack visibly show up to make the deals.

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Jul 3Liked by Steve Sailer

In addition, I don't think Michelle has the temperament or personality to run for president, never mind actually serve in office. During her husband's 2008 campaign she put her foot in her mouth more than once before they hid her away. However, as the candidate she won't have that opportunity. I think if she was the nominee it would be a disaster for the Democrats and Michelle knows this. Being the former first lady is a MUCH sweeter gig.

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Jul 3Liked by Steve Sailer

Newsom is a loss. Kamala is a loss. Sure, princess Michelle has a wonderful life. So did Trump. People don’t go for it because they need health insurance. Besides, it’s Barry who will be doing the heavy lifting.

A few months ago, MO went public with how much she worries in the wee hours of night about the welfare of the country. That was putting a toe out there. She will need to pretend she has no interest. She will need to have it appear she’s being recruited against her better judgement for the good of us all.

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That depends on how much fraud they're willing to pull.

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Jul 3·edited Jul 3Liked by Steve Sailer

The RealClearPolitics betting-market average (which includes PredictIt), as of the hour before the debate, implied a 44% chance that a Democrat will win the election. But already there were real doubters: Biden only had an implied 36% change to win, with 8% for the aggregate of other Democrats. Real 'bet' money behind these numbers.

By June 30th (+72 hours after the debate), it was down to: Biden 20%, Other Dem, 23%. Almost an identical chance for a Dem victory (pre-debate: 44%; at +72-hour-mark: 43%). The debate hurt Biden but DIDN'T help Trump, by this measure. The market, by that time, seemed to believe that Biden would be replaced as the nominee.

Now we are +120 hours past the June 27th debate. The same betting-market average now puts Biden further down, but other Democrats only slightly up, for the overall odds of a Democratic presidency in 2025-29 down to 41% (falling three points since the debate). It seems that market now is tending towards thinking that if Biden is in fact nominated, he will lose.

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[Implied odds to WIN THE PRESIDENCY in 2024, as of July 2nd, 2024, late evening, RCP betting-market average]

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Republican: 57%

- 56%: Trump [+4% vs. pre-debate]

- 1%: Any other Republican

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Democrat: 41%

- 16.5%: Biden [-20% vs. pre-debate]

- 24.3%: Any other Democrat (5.7% Newsom, 3.6% Michelle Obama, 3.5% Whitmer, 10.5% Kamala Harris, 1% Hillary Clinton) [aggregate, +16% vs. pre-debate]

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- 2% Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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Previous data here: https://www.stevesailer.net/p/deep-cluster-how-influential-elites/comment/60572381

Original data: https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

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Update:

RearlClearPolitics' betting-market average had Harris > Biden in %-chance to win the presidency starting July 3 and holding as of late in day July 6.

So, for four days running, Harris > Biden. But: the peak-day for Harris was July 4, when she had six-point advantage. The July 6 spread is down to 2.5 points. The heavy-money-flowing PredictIt is, at this writing, dead-even for Harris and Biden.

This is data to suggest the ABC interview of July 5 helped Biden a lot, in that it stopped a slide in the betting-market data. But the big-players like CNN keep agitating against him.

There is also betting-market data to suggest that while Harris has an advantage to get the D-team nomination she has a disadvantage to actually win the election (Harris>Biden in "Who gets D-team nomination?"; Biden=Harris for "Who will win the presidency?"). In other words, the market thinks Biden is a stronger candidate than Harris, which goes against the panicked D-teamer consensus.

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Jul 3Liked by Steve Sailer

The Democrats made the ultimate DEI appointment in 2020 and they must now live with it. If the nominee is anyone other than Biden or Harris, the coalition will fall apart. It's sink-or-swim for the Democrats this year.

I will say that in 2028 all bets will be off, no matter what happens this year. It will be a situation like when Dan Quayle wanted to be president; no one took him seriously despite being Bush 41's VP.

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Jul 3·edited Jul 3

I don't see how they could let Harris become Prez before the election without making her the nominee.

It would be interesting to know when Prez Edith Wilson became known to the public and what was its reaction. The office was less powerful then, but standards were a quantum or three higher. Did his 81 million voters really believe Biden was fine in 2020, or was he just not Trump?

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We thought he was fine enough, and yes, being not-Trump was his most important asset.

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