A fascinating question I’ve long wondered about is how much would the demographics of Chicago change if its current black neighborhoods weren’t so unsafe.
You do know Mexico has strict gun laws, too, right? Even stricter than Canada's IIRC.
Canada is nice because it's full of Canadians.
Speaking of Canada and gun violence, however, didn't Toronto just have its very own gangsta rap shootout just last month?
Toronto isn't looking so great lately, so I guess it's a good thing my daughter turned down UT in favor of UBC for school come fall. I was kind of mad at her but now that I look into it maybe Toronto is kind of a crappy place.
I’m in Victoria, BC. It has a low number of recent immigrants, likely because it’s on an island. So it’s the closest you’ll get to the “old” Canada, before the immigration insanity.
I don’t know how Toronto’s faring, but I’m sure it’s worse.
Victoria is a real gem. One of my best early memories is taking the Victoria Clipper with my grandmother when I was very small.
I'm considering a trip to the Olympic Peninsula with my youngest son later this summer. If I can pull it off I'd like to take the ferry from Port Angeles to spend a day in Victoria. It's been too long since my last visit, and Vancouver Island really is a special place.
Chicago homicide rate, since 2016: 25-to-30 per 100,000 population (except for a reprieve between about late-2017 and May 2020).
In the 1920s to early 1930s, the peak-"gangster" era (as semi-fictionalized in the Untouchables movie), the homicide rate only hit about 15 per 100,000. A high rate for a White population.
The long-run average before Black in migration was 5-to-10 per 100,000, also pretty high for a White population.
Caveats for cross-time comparisons are that with modern medicine, the early-20th-century rates would be several points lower (i.e., more gunshot victims and such would survive), and would also be revised down for any age-adjustment (younger average-age populations will always have higher homicide rates). Old Chicago was never particularly dangerous by today's standards.
What Chicago became after the mid-1960s crime rise is something unrecognizable, strange, troubling, post-Western. Dangerous, in many ways, in that families would tend to want to get out. Large areas of the city proper never returned to White-Western standards of normalcy. A creeping-rot Third-Worldization visible in the homicide-data.
Some parts of the city have near-zero homicides (gangs specifically targeting Whites in their neighborhoods, South Africa style, has not apparently yet happened). But the overall homicide rate implies a lifetime-chance of death by homicide of 2%, to 2.5% for the hypothetical statistically-median person who spends a lifetime in Chicago. It's such a shame, and a further shame that it's allowed to continue by the leaders of that city.
Absolutely correct. Adjusting for all variables over the past 50-75 years, the one constant in the huge increase in violence and murder in our big cities is the presence of black males. However, to call this out (I love your phrase, "creeping-rot third-worldization"!) is to be accused of racism (yawn).
You won't have economic development in areas that are wracked by violent crime. Young black men
(15-34) are just 2% of the population and commit about half of the nation's homicides. A rate an astounding 49 times that of the average American.
Most of their victims are other young black men. A major reason no one cares. They are the country's gun violence problem. Saying that truth makes me a racist in today's world.
The roots of the problem are: the lack of respect for education (read up on the disruption in any inner city classroom and the refusal of black administrators to address it by imposing needed discipline) and the casual acceptance of criminal behavior in the black community exemplified by the refusal to cooperate with law enforcement, and the failure of many (most?) black fathers to love and care for their children and especially their boy children. Those who object to this analysis deny black people any agency over their own lives. They are the true racists. Fix those issues and you have a shot at reducing gun violence in America.
"... the failure of many (most?) black fathers to love and care for their children and especially their boy children."
To be fair to black fathers, most of them don't have much of a choice in the matter. Their baby mommas typically eject them with the help of the police so they can live a more comfortable, carefree life on the dole.
Given the carrots and sticks of American welfare and family law living the life of a "playa" is a rational decision for most black men who wish to act in their self-interest.
External locus of control. Case in point: my sister's black husband "educated" her with a book by an ex-felon who claimed he was violent because of white people. When I asked my sister how he explains this in the book, she had a meltdown. Apparently -- and as we all know -- we're supposed to purchase black narcissistic "reasoning" in order to be GOOD PEOPLE.
Yet the belief system of this culture is its real and true problem. Every failure is due to 'racism.' Even among those black males killing each other in distant urban neighborhoods where they never see a white person.
These are people who can stand in the highest ranks of power bemoaning that they have no agency whatsoever.
Here's an anecdote that stuck with me: I worked in a pizza place back in the 80s, my first real encounter with urban blacks. One (black) pizza cook got pregnant by the bartender (also black) and said to me: "And ah said, ah said, where's my monthly?" "What do you mean," I asked. "Ah didn't know the monthly stops when you gets pregnant," she said. "I didn't know that doing it gets you pregnant." "Are you serious?" I asked. "You have how many older sisters, parents, etc, and you didn't know how babies are made?"
Apparently not. And the bartender would have nothing to do with the child he had made, either.
I dunno. My grandmother put her 60s housekeeper through LPN school, leading to a successful career. She already had 9 children (some driving) and a husband who died youngish. Her 5 daughters were all also professionally successful but had no husbands or children. The 4 sons were good for little, but she finally got a grandchild that she ended up raising, and he got in legal trouble in his late teens. Would the daughters have had better luck with children than she did?
Brandon Johnson- Chicago. Erick Adams- NYC Mayor. I think you combined the names.
They’re all the same mayor anyway. 😉
I’m so glad I live in a place with few blacks and few handguns.
How do you know there are few handguns? They might not be used.
Because I’m in Canada which has strict gun laws. Very few people have handguns.
You do know Mexico has strict gun laws, too, right? Even stricter than Canada's IIRC.
Canada is nice because it's full of Canadians.
Speaking of Canada and gun violence, however, didn't Toronto just have its very own gangsta rap shootout just last month?
Toronto isn't looking so great lately, so I guess it's a good thing my daughter turned down UT in favor of UBC for school come fall. I was kind of mad at her but now that I look into it maybe Toronto is kind of a crappy place.
I’m in Victoria, BC. It has a low number of recent immigrants, likely because it’s on an island. So it’s the closest you’ll get to the “old” Canada, before the immigration insanity.
I don’t know how Toronto’s faring, but I’m sure it’s worse.
Victoria is a real gem. One of my best early memories is taking the Victoria Clipper with my grandmother when I was very small.
I'm considering a trip to the Olympic Peninsula with my youngest son later this summer. If I can pull it off I'd like to take the ferry from Port Angeles to spend a day in Victoria. It's been too long since my last visit, and Vancouver Island really is a special place.
Glad to hear it hasn't been overrun.
That ferry is a nice trip.
Chicago homicide rate, since 2016: 25-to-30 per 100,000 population (except for a reprieve between about late-2017 and May 2020).
In the 1920s to early 1930s, the peak-"gangster" era (as semi-fictionalized in the Untouchables movie), the homicide rate only hit about 15 per 100,000. A high rate for a White population.
The long-run average before Black in migration was 5-to-10 per 100,000, also pretty high for a White population.
Caveats for cross-time comparisons are that with modern medicine, the early-20th-century rates would be several points lower (i.e., more gunshot victims and such would survive), and would also be revised down for any age-adjustment (younger average-age populations will always have higher homicide rates). Old Chicago was never particularly dangerous by today's standards.
What Chicago became after the mid-1960s crime rise is something unrecognizable, strange, troubling, post-Western. Dangerous, in many ways, in that families would tend to want to get out. Large areas of the city proper never returned to White-Western standards of normalcy. A creeping-rot Third-Worldization visible in the homicide-data.
Some parts of the city have near-zero homicides (gangs specifically targeting Whites in their neighborhoods, South Africa style, has not apparently yet happened). But the overall homicide rate implies a lifetime-chance of death by homicide of 2%, to 2.5% for the hypothetical statistically-median person who spends a lifetime in Chicago. It's such a shame, and a further shame that it's allowed to continue by the leaders of that city.
Absolutely correct. Adjusting for all variables over the past 50-75 years, the one constant in the huge increase in violence and murder in our big cities is the presence of black males. However, to call this out (I love your phrase, "creeping-rot third-worldization"!) is to be accused of racism (yawn).
You won't have economic development in areas that are wracked by violent crime. Young black men
(15-34) are just 2% of the population and commit about half of the nation's homicides. A rate an astounding 49 times that of the average American.
Most of their victims are other young black men. A major reason no one cares. They are the country's gun violence problem. Saying that truth makes me a racist in today's world.
The roots of the problem are: the lack of respect for education (read up on the disruption in any inner city classroom and the refusal of black administrators to address it by imposing needed discipline) and the casual acceptance of criminal behavior in the black community exemplified by the refusal to cooperate with law enforcement, and the failure of many (most?) black fathers to love and care for their children and especially their boy children. Those who object to this analysis deny black people any agency over their own lives. They are the true racists. Fix those issues and you have a shot at reducing gun violence in America.
"... the failure of many (most?) black fathers to love and care for their children and especially their boy children."
To be fair to black fathers, most of them don't have much of a choice in the matter. Their baby mommas typically eject them with the help of the police so they can live a more comfortable, carefree life on the dole.
Given the carrots and sticks of American welfare and family law living the life of a "playa" is a rational decision for most black men who wish to act in their self-interest.
External locus of control. Case in point: my sister's black husband "educated" her with a book by an ex-felon who claimed he was violent because of white people. When I asked my sister how he explains this in the book, she had a meltdown. Apparently -- and as we all know -- we're supposed to purchase black narcissistic "reasoning" in order to be GOOD PEOPLE.
Yet the belief system of this culture is its real and true problem. Every failure is due to 'racism.' Even among those black males killing each other in distant urban neighborhoods where they never see a white person.
These are people who can stand in the highest ranks of power bemoaning that they have no agency whatsoever.
Here's an anecdote that stuck with me: I worked in a pizza place back in the 80s, my first real encounter with urban blacks. One (black) pizza cook got pregnant by the bartender (also black) and said to me: "And ah said, ah said, where's my monthly?" "What do you mean," I asked. "Ah didn't know the monthly stops when you gets pregnant," she said. "I didn't know that doing it gets you pregnant." "Are you serious?" I asked. "You have how many older sisters, parents, etc, and you didn't know how babies are made?"
Apparently not. And the bartender would have nothing to do with the child he had made, either.
Didn't realize that reparations would take such strange forms.
All you need to know about Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson--he's making Lori Lighfoot look good! 😂
Imagine what would happen if there was an incentive for competent black women not to have abortions.
I dunno. My grandmother put her 60s housekeeper through LPN school, leading to a successful career. She already had 9 children (some driving) and a husband who died youngish. Her 5 daughters were all also professionally successful but had no husbands or children. The 4 sons were good for little, but she finally got a grandchild that she ended up raising, and he got in legal trouble in his late teens. Would the daughters have had better luck with children than she did?
I come from the position that every life deserves a chance.