Deep Cluster: How Influential Elites Actually Make Decisions

Who are the shadowy Svengalis whispering in the ears of the nominally powerful front men whom we naively think actually rule us? Who makes up this Inner Party of terrifying omniscience? Who are the real life equivalents of the characters Mustapha Mond and O’Brien, the brilliant and sinister controllers who come on at the end of Brave New World and 1984, respectively, to explain how power really works?

Or is the truth even more frightening? Could it be that nobody in charge much knows what they’re doing and they’re just mostly making it up, under the pressure of events, as they go along, with lowbrow personal emotions playing huge roles in their decisions?

Something seldom noticed about the spread of the conspiracy mindset on the right is what a high opinion it holds of Deep State competence. I’m often assured that, in effect, the unnamed shadowy powers behind the Joe Biden throne have flawlessly game-planned triple bankshot psy-ops to manipulate the world well into the future.

Yet, if you were that good at marketing, wouldn’t Nike or Red Bull pay you more than the Intelligence Community could? If you could anticipate historic trends that well, wouldn’t Goldman Sachs want to employ you?

For example, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Bill Burns, earns a $204,000 salary. Granted, the benefits are nice, but still …

Of course, one might argue, CIA Director Burns is just a false front puppet of the real power behind the throne at the CIA, who is … well, specifics get a little harder to come by at this point.

And on and on in an infinite regression.

An alternative view is that while there are hugely influential people out there, (a well-informed friend suggested that former Google CEO Eric Schmidt would be a good Deep State first round draft pick), they aren’t necessarily all geniuses. And even if they are, they tend to make their plans up as they go along.

And the most powerful individuals of all tend to be the ones nominally in charge (what I call Peak State theory: the guy who looks, to our lying eyes, like he is on top of the pyramid of power probably is the guy really on top of the pyramid).

For example, from the New York Times news section today, Sunday, a report (who knows how accurate) about the deliberations of the people whom the most Powerful Man in the World trusts most:

Biden’s Family Tells Him to Keep Fighting as They Huddle at Camp David

By Katie Rogers and Peter Baker

Katie Rogers and Peter Baker cover the White House.

June 30, 2024

Updated 4:47 p.m. ET

President Biden’s family is urging him to stay in the race and keep fighting despite last week’s disastrous debate performance, even as some members of his clan privately expressed exasperation at how he was prepared for the event by his staff, people close to the situation said on Sunday.

Mr. Biden huddled with his wife, children and grandchildren at Camp David while he tried to figure out how to tamp down Democratic anxiety. While his relatives are acutely aware of how poorly he did against former President Donald J. Trump, they argued that he could still show the country that he is capable of serving for another four years. …

So, which obscure but eminent behind-the-scenes font of wisdom is Joe turning to for strategic counsel?

Well, one of the “strongest voices” telling the President today what the President wants to hear is his crack addict son Hunter Biden:

One of the strongest voices imploring Mr. Biden to resist pressure to drop out was his son Hunter Biden, whom the president has long leaned on for advice, said one of the people informed about the discussions, who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity to share internal deliberations. Hunter Biden wants Americans to see the version of his father that he knows — scrappy and in command of the facts — rather than the stumbling, aging president Americans saw on Thursday night.

Other family members were trying to figure out how they could be helpful. At least one of the president’s grandchildren has expressed interest in getting more involved with the campaign, perhaps by talking with influencers on social media, according to the informed person.

OK, problem solved: one of Biden’s grandkids has volunteered to influence social media influencers!

But Biden also has non-family advisers, paid staff, his infamous “handlers.” Surely, these are geniuses at manipulating world events according to their complex, far-sighted plans?

But some who know them have doubts about the competence of Biden’s trusted staff:

The anger among Democrats was made evident on Sunday when John Morgan, a top Democratic donor, publicly blamed the advisers who managed the president’s debate preparations, citing by name Ron Klain, Anita Dunn and Bob Bauer.

“Biden has for too long been fooled by the value of Anita Dunn and her husband [Bob Bauer, Biden’s personal attorney],” Mr. Morgan wrote on social media. “They need to go … TODAY. The grifting is gross. It was political malpractice.”

He elaborated in a subsequent interview. “It would be like if you took a prizefighter who was going to have a title fight and put him in a sauna for 15 hours then said, ‘Go fight,’” he said. “I believe that the debate is solely on Ron Klain, Bob Bauer and Anita Dunn.”

Members of Mr. Biden’s family were likewise said to be focused on the president’s staff, including Ms. Dunn, a White House senior adviser, and her husband, Mr. Bauer, the president’s personal attorney, who played Mr. Trump during debate rehearsals.

They were asking why Mr. Klain, the former White House chief of staff who ran the preparations, would in their view allow him to be overloaded with statistics, and they were angry that Mr. Biden, who arrived for the debate in Atlanta with a summer tan, was made up to look pale and pallid, said one of the people, who has been in touch with several members of the family.

But the person said that the president himself was not among those who were upset and that he still trusted Mr. Klain, Ms. Dunn, Mr. Bauer and the others. …

A couple of Democrats pointed out that neither family members nor Mr. Morgan or other critics attended the preparation sessions and therefore had no idea how they went. …

But Mr. Biden is a proud man, and they said they believed that the odds of him trying to gut it out were still 4 or 5 to 1. …

A new poll by CBS News found strong sentiment among Democratic voters for Mr. Biden, 81, to cede the way to a younger nominee. Forty-five percent of Democrats said they wanted a different candidate to take on the battle with Mr. Trump. Among voters overall, just 27 percent think Mr. Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, down from 35 percent before the debate. …

If any major discussions about the president’s future were to take place with the family, two Biden confidants said, they would not happen at Camp David, where too many people outside the family might overhear.

The family had already planned before the debate to spend the weekend at Camp David, in part to participate in a photo shoot with the veteran celebrity photographer Annie Leibovitz. It was the first time the entire family had assembled in one place since Hunter Biden was convicted of federal gun charges; he still faces sentencing and another trial on tax charges.

Now, if that’s not reassuring about how the sausage gets made, I don’t know what is.