Democrats are finally noticing Karl Rove wasn't right about the Hispanic Vote

For the first two decades of this century, the conventional wisdom of paid political strategists for both parties was George W. Bush’s svengali Karl Rove's grand strategy that opening wide the borders was what Hispanic voters cared about most, that whichever party pandered hardest to Latinos on immigration would rule the Hispanic-dominated future. Sure, the Republicans would lose out on each additional Latino let in, but they’d make up for it in volume. Or something.

I was a rare voice of dissent. It seemed to me that the Hispanics who cared most about Open Borders were exactly the the handful of Latinos whom strategists and journalists talked to the most, such as Hispanic politicians and NGO ethnic activists. Of course, they benefit from swamping the country with more warm Latin American bodies whom they could claim to be the leaders of.

My emphasis over the last 24 years has been instead that Americans of Latin-American descent who vote aren’t monolithic Open Borders fanatics like their white-subsidized elites want them to be. Instead, Hispanic voters tend to favor traditional Democratic Harry Hopkins-style policies of tax and tax, spend and spend, elect and elect for basic class reasons.

The Democrats appear to have finally figured out that Rove was wrong and I was right. From the New York Times news section today:

Can Democrats Win Back Latino Voters by Treating Them Like Everyone Else?

Democrats seem to be recognizing that Latinos have the same hodgepodge mix of priorities as other voters. Will that help them make up ground lost to Donald J. Trump?

By Jennifer Medina

Jennifer Medina has covered the Latino electorate since 2019. She reported from Los Angeles and the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Aug. 28, 2024

When the Harris campaign released its first television ad targeting Latino voters, one word was conspicuously absent: Latinos. …

So it is especially notable that Democrats, four years after hemorrhaging Latino support, have not been offering a slew of overt appeals. Rather than ads filled with promises about immigration reform and Spanish phrases, Democrats have been focusing on economic messages, talking about the cost of housing and medication, or relentlessly hammering the promise of the American dream. In short, they are courting Latino voters by treating them like everyone else.

The change represents both a shifting political strategy and an evolving view of Latino identity. Rather than approach Latino voters as if they are an enigmatic niche group with a narrow set of interests, Democrats seem to be recognizing that Latinos have the same hodgepodge mix of priorities as other voters. With more than 36 million Latinos eligible to vote this year, they are firmly in the mainstream. …

Polls show that Latinos’ top policy concerns largely mirror those of other voters. They often prioritize jobs and the economy over immigration. …

During the last two election cycles, many Democrats presumed that Latinos would be repelled by former President Donald J. Trump, largely because of his harsh immigration rhetoric and policies. Instead, Mr. Trump made inroads with Latino voters in many parts of the country, partly by appealing to their patriotism and religious beliefs, while playing up his macho image.

Also, the Democrats spent 2020-2021 making very clear to Latinos that they ranked far down the Diversity Pokemon Points Pyramid, way, way below sacred blacks and trans.

“We always knew that Hispanics cared most about the economy, the American dream, getting opportunities,” said Daniel Garza, the president of Libre, which has focused on conservative Hispanic outreach for years.

The Trump campaign has only increased those efforts in the last four years, deepening ties to Hispanic evangelical churches and rebranding the campaign’s outreach to Latino Americans.

And Democrats are taking notice.

During their convention, there were fewer direct appeals to identity politics, which in the past have come across as so blunt as to be comical. …

Representative Ruben Gallego, a Democrat from Arizona now running for Senate, loudly criticized his party four years ago for adopting “Latinx,” a gender neutral term embraced by the left but rarely used by Hispanics. Mr. Gallego saw it as a symbol of the party’s disconnect from the voters they were trying to court.

In particular, I’d imagine that Mexican-Americans aren’t at all crazy about how after Trump had negotiated a successful agreement with the president of Mexico, AMLO, to discourage non-Mexicans from transiting through Mexico to cross into the U.S., Biden immediately blew up the remain-in-Mexico deal with AMLO, setting off a huge flood of non-Mexicans, such as Haitians, through Mexico to the Rio Grande.

Particularly galling to Mexican-Americans was in 2021 when mounted Border Patrol officers in the Rio Grande Valley, heavily Mexican-American of course, were excoriated as racists by the Biden Administration for using their ancient horsemanship skills to keep a flood of 15,000 black Haitians under control at Del Rio.