Do you have the same data, but for US as a whole? I tried using the WONDER database, but being unfamiliar with the interface, it will take some more time to figure out how exactly to get it.
I am interested in the "baseline", so we can see whether MInnesota is an outlier or just part of a trend post-COVID / George Floyd.
Consider cities like Baltimore, Washington DC, Kansas city (Kansas) or any city with large black populations. They have been killing fields for as long as blacks have had control of the government.
Minnesota still has a relatively small black population, and while St. Paul has a black mayor, he is surrounded by white functionaries and all other large cities have predominantly white administrations.
The evidence would seem to suggest that black lives irrelevant is not confined to gang infested ghettos; black leaders don’t really care much either unless there are federal grant dollars (aka gibs) to be had from feigning outrage.
I guess the thrust of my argument is it’s only fair to measure Walz’s leadership of Minnesota against Utah.
Oh I do believe you. Black-on-black violence of all kinds has invariably increased dramatically in the wake of the (white dominated) anti-police protests that have punctuated American life in recent decades. Nobody seems minded to protest about this. Middle class Progressives and student radicals do not surge into these nightmare neighbourhoods waving banners, calling for justice for the innocents caught in the crossfire and an end to a culture of sexual oppression. These black lives do not seem to matters to them. https://grahamcunningham.substack.com/p/back-in-the-summer-of-2020
21st century progressives are.... inefficiently carrying out the early 20th century progressive Eugenics policies. Just not as honestly and effectively.
If a Republican governor means lower crime why do Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri all have higher homicide rates than Minnesota. And remember, even with a Republican as governor, the counties and cities with the most blacks were run by Democrats.
Ideally, we'd start with comparative rates in a given state under Repub and Demo administrations. E.g., Pawlenty vs Waltz in Minn, and a repub governor vs a demo governor in one of the states you mention.
But that's all beside the point as far as I'm concerned. There are far too many other factors involved to simply use party affiliation of the governor.
But there would be so many covariants of why those states would have a Republican or Democrat as governor. Pawlenty was preceded by Jesse Ventura who was not a Democrat and followed by Mark Dayton. The better comparison to see if partisanship has any effect could be to compare the last year of Pawlenty to the first year of Dayton.
Yes, and this is a case comparative rates within a given state, right?
My main gripe was comparing state-to-state regarding partisan administrations.
But again, even that would be vastly ineffective due to many other causal factors.
So I guess what I meant to say, and should have, is that comparing rates state-to-state using partisan affiliation of the current governors was one of the worst of some poor comparisons.
What did the governor know, and when did he know it?
But how much control do any of them have over police, DAs, and judges, or do they mostly set the tone? He wouldn't risk mayhem by freeing Chauvin even if he wanted to. Funny that it took St. George's single martyrdom for cops to realize nationwide that no one has their backs with blacks--and to act on that knowledge.
Yes, because of all of the downstream problems. Think about the white guy in Kansas City who was so scared of black men that he shot a black teenager through his door.
Walz suffers from the issue is that he is not allowed to contemplate that blacks, on average, will react differently, than non-Hispanic whites or Asians. Thus, Minnesota has left of center policies that seem to work fairly well for educated whites but do poorly with blacks (or non-white immigrants). Wisconsin falls into the same paradigm for progressives.
I know this time of year we sort-of accept that politicians will be campaigning to keep their jobs or to get new ones, rather than perform their current ones, but Tim Walz is going to be awfully busy the next 13 weeks or so. I suppose Minnesota is being run by its Lt. Governor, who seems to be a legitimate Pocahontas.
"Nationally, the black homicide victimization rate went up 45% from 2009-2018 to 2019-2023 compared to up 83% in Minnesota."
Do I have it right that in absolute terms, the Black-homicide rate in Minnesota had been half the national Black-homicide rate before mid-2020, and between mid-2020 and mid-2024 it was up to three-quarters the national-Black rate (for the same periods)?
If so, Minnesota still does retain some lingering Magic Dirt after all. But its powers are fading.
To paraphrase what (former Iowan) Mr. Last Real Calvinist wrote on these pages a few days ago, there was much good cultural-capital sitting accumulated in Minnesota as of the 1990s or so, before Blacks began to arrive in numbers sufficient to push past numerical-cultural thresholds, triggering the usual cycles. There are now a lot of Blacks in Minnesota.
As Mr. Calvinist said: "[In Minnesota] they're still drawing down the social capital" they had in place as of the 1980s/90s. The strain is showing after a few decades but it will take some years before the full effects are felt.
.
KEITH ELLISON and MINNESOTSA DECLINE
In the story of Minnesota, a 'threshold' (or Rubicon) political moment may be remembered as being the election of Keith Ellison, a former frequent topic of Steve Sailer's attention.
What's so significant-seeming about Keith Ellison is that he was a Black-Muslim racial-nationalist type, and that he barely concealed his views. Like a living, real-world, mainstream-politics version of a character (caricaturized) from Tom Wolfe's Mau-Mauing the Flakcatchers from decades earlier.
Keith Ellison elbowed is way past strong-but-diffuse set of the usual competent-White-liberal rivals in the D-primary for a Minneapolis U.S. House seat in Sept. 2006. He only squeaked past in the primary at that time, mostly by taking the entirety of the nonwhite vote, while White-liberals split between competent white candidates. Ellison then rode the party-machine to victory; then used the machine and the incumbency bully-pulpit to stay in place -- for 12 years in the House.
Keith Ellison's predecessor's and successor's names tell it all: before him, "Martin Olav Sabo" [b.1938]; after him, "Ilhan Omar" [b.1982].
I haven't seen Steve Sailer mention the name much lately, but Keith Ellison is today still a hugely important figure in Minnesota, being the state attorney general, in that case elected thanks to 2018 being an anti-Trump wave election. He won extremely unimpressive victories in both 2018 and 2022, indicating a lot of D-voters declined to vote for him. But there he is.
One is reminded of that line from Christopher Caldwell about an anti-white race-preference system in a Western liberal-democracy being impossible to stop because its beneficiaries go from too weak for White people to organize to disempower, too too strong for White people to be able to disempower. Minnesota is not quite there yet, but many other states are.
It's also quite possible that Somalis don't have a high murder rate. I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised. The current African-American level of shootiness seems partly a Social Construct, something that might have faded partly away by now if not for all the cultural efforts from Gangsta Rap to Critical Race Theory to the kind of attitudes that lead blacks to shoot each other so much.
OT: We have a multi-ethnic non-white quintet who robbed a cannabis dispensary in Santa Rosa CA:
Five Sacramento residents were arrested for the robbery of a marijuana dispensary in Santa Rosa, according to the Santa Rosa Police Department.
At 8 p.m. on Thursday, an employee of a marijuana dispensary alerted police to a robbery that occurred at the establishment located in the 1800 block of Empire Industrial Court.
The employee informed Santa Rosa PD that several individuals in four vehicles pulled up to the dispensary and assaulted him, stealing marijuana products. The suspects then fled into the four vehicles. The victim provided police with the descriptions of the cars.
Aurya Pratap Singh, 23
Javier Artemio Ruvalcaba, 23
Jacourtney Deshawn Carter, 23
Chermeine Vedell Carter, 29
Reginald Dale Harris III, 22
The five were all charged with felony robbery and conspiracy. Jacourtney Deshawn Carter and Chermeine Vedell Carter were also charged with resisting arrest. Reginald Dale Harris III was additionally charged with felony evading and resisting arrest.
Do you have the same data, but for US as a whole? I tried using the WONDER database, but being unfamiliar with the interface, it will take some more time to figure out how exactly to get it.
I am interested in the "baseline", so we can see whether MInnesota is an outlier or just part of a trend post-COVID / George Floyd.
That’s a difficult metric to compile.
Consider cities like Baltimore, Washington DC, Kansas city (Kansas) or any city with large black populations. They have been killing fields for as long as blacks have had control of the government.
Minnesota still has a relatively small black population, and while St. Paul has a black mayor, he is surrounded by white functionaries and all other large cities have predominantly white administrations.
The evidence would seem to suggest that black lives irrelevant is not confined to gang infested ghettos; black leaders don’t really care much either unless there are federal grant dollars (aka gibs) to be had from feigning outrage.
I guess the thrust of my argument is it’s only fair to measure Walz’s leadership of Minnesota against Utah.
Nationally, the black homicide victimization rate was up 45% compared to up 83% in Minnesota.
Oh I do believe you. Black-on-black violence of all kinds has invariably increased dramatically in the wake of the (white dominated) anti-police protests that have punctuated American life in recent decades. Nobody seems minded to protest about this. Middle class Progressives and student radicals do not surge into these nightmare neighbourhoods waving banners, calling for justice for the innocents caught in the crossfire and an end to a culture of sexual oppression. These black lives do not seem to matters to them. https://grahamcunningham.substack.com/p/back-in-the-summer-of-2020
21st century progressives are.... inefficiently carrying out the early 20th century progressive Eugenics policies. Just not as honestly and effectively.
In Minnesota, the black homicide victimization rate went up 83 percent from 2009-2018 to 2019-2023.
Nationally, the black homicide victimization rate went up 45%
2019-2023: 30.2
2009-2018: 20.8
We’d be remiss to not mention that the years of lowest carnage were accompanied by a Republican Governor (Minnesota’s last), Tim Pawlenty (2003-2011).
If a Republican governor means lower crime why do Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri all have higher homicide rates than Minnesota. And remember, even with a Republican as governor, the counties and cities with the most blacks were run by Democrats.
I don't think that's the comparison we want.
Ideally, we'd start with comparative rates in a given state under Repub and Demo administrations. E.g., Pawlenty vs Waltz in Minn, and a repub governor vs a demo governor in one of the states you mention.
But that's all beside the point as far as I'm concerned. There are far too many other factors involved to simply use party affiliation of the governor.
But there would be so many covariants of why those states would have a Republican or Democrat as governor. Pawlenty was preceded by Jesse Ventura who was not a Democrat and followed by Mark Dayton. The better comparison to see if partisanship has any effect could be to compare the last year of Pawlenty to the first year of Dayton.
Yes, and this is a case comparative rates within a given state, right?
My main gripe was comparing state-to-state regarding partisan administrations.
But again, even that would be vastly ineffective due to many other causal factors.
So I guess what I meant to say, and should have, is that comparing rates state-to-state using partisan affiliation of the current governors was one of the worst of some poor comparisons.
"...why do Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri all have higher homicide rates than Minnesota...?"
Demographics.
What did the governor know, and when did he know it?
But how much control do any of them have over police, DAs, and judges, or do they mostly set the tone? He wouldn't risk mayhem by freeing Chauvin even if he wanted to. Funny that it took St. George's single martyrdom for cops to realize nationwide that no one has their backs with blacks--and to act on that knowledge.
Is a rising black homicide rate a bad thing?
Yes, because of all of the downstream problems. Think about the white guy in Kansas City who was so scared of black men that he shot a black teenager through his door.
It means no private investment in violent neighborhoods, so the taxpayers get all the bills.
Walz suffers from the issue is that he is not allowed to contemplate that blacks, on average, will react differently, than non-Hispanic whites or Asians. Thus, Minnesota has left of center policies that seem to work fairly well for educated whites but do poorly with blacks (or non-white immigrants). Wisconsin falls into the same paradigm for progressives.
I know this time of year we sort-of accept that politicians will be campaigning to keep their jobs or to get new ones, rather than perform their current ones, but Tim Walz is going to be awfully busy the next 13 weeks or so. I suppose Minnesota is being run by its Lt. Governor, who seems to be a legitimate Pocahontas.
"Nationally, the black homicide victimization rate went up 45% from 2009-2018 to 2019-2023 compared to up 83% in Minnesota."
Do I have it right that in absolute terms, the Black-homicide rate in Minnesota had been half the national Black-homicide rate before mid-2020, and between mid-2020 and mid-2024 it was up to three-quarters the national-Black rate (for the same periods)?
If so, Minnesota still does retain some lingering Magic Dirt after all. But its powers are fading.
To paraphrase what (former Iowan) Mr. Last Real Calvinist wrote on these pages a few days ago, there was much good cultural-capital sitting accumulated in Minnesota as of the 1990s or so, before Blacks began to arrive in numbers sufficient to push past numerical-cultural thresholds, triggering the usual cycles. There are now a lot of Blacks in Minnesota.
As Mr. Calvinist said: "[In Minnesota] they're still drawing down the social capital" they had in place as of the 1980s/90s. The strain is showing after a few decades but it will take some years before the full effects are felt.
.
KEITH ELLISON and MINNESOTSA DECLINE
In the story of Minnesota, a 'threshold' (or Rubicon) political moment may be remembered as being the election of Keith Ellison, a former frequent topic of Steve Sailer's attention.
What's so significant-seeming about Keith Ellison is that he was a Black-Muslim racial-nationalist type, and that he barely concealed his views. Like a living, real-world, mainstream-politics version of a character (caricaturized) from Tom Wolfe's Mau-Mauing the Flakcatchers from decades earlier.
Keith Ellison elbowed is way past strong-but-diffuse set of the usual competent-White-liberal rivals in the D-primary for a Minneapolis U.S. House seat in Sept. 2006. He only squeaked past in the primary at that time, mostly by taking the entirety of the nonwhite vote, while White-liberals split between competent white candidates. Ellison then rode the party-machine to victory; then used the machine and the incumbency bully-pulpit to stay in place -- for 12 years in the House.
Keith Ellison's predecessor's and successor's names tell it all: before him, "Martin Olav Sabo" [b.1938]; after him, "Ilhan Omar" [b.1982].
I haven't seen Steve Sailer mention the name much lately, but Keith Ellison is today still a hugely important figure in Minnesota, being the state attorney general, in that case elected thanks to 2018 being an anti-Trump wave election. He won extremely unimpressive victories in both 2018 and 2022, indicating a lot of D-voters declined to vote for him. But there he is.
One is reminded of that line from Christopher Caldwell about an anti-white race-preference system in a Western liberal-democracy being impossible to stop because its beneficiaries go from too weak for White people to organize to disempower, too too strong for White people to be able to disempower. Minnesota is not quite there yet, but many other states are.
It's also quite possible that Somalis don't have a high murder rate. I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised. The current African-American level of shootiness seems partly a Social Construct, something that might have faded partly away by now if not for all the cultural efforts from Gangsta Rap to Critical Race Theory to the kind of attitudes that lead blacks to shoot each other so much.
Well Somalia has a tribal feud culture.
The kind that creates various forms of organised crime when the superstructure of a modern state is imposed upon it.
OT: We have a multi-ethnic non-white quintet who robbed a cannabis dispensary in Santa Rosa CA:
Five Sacramento residents were arrested for the robbery of a marijuana dispensary in Santa Rosa, according to the Santa Rosa Police Department.
At 8 p.m. on Thursday, an employee of a marijuana dispensary alerted police to a robbery that occurred at the establishment located in the 1800 block of Empire Industrial Court.
The employee informed Santa Rosa PD that several individuals in four vehicles pulled up to the dispensary and assaulted him, stealing marijuana products. The suspects then fled into the four vehicles. The victim provided police with the descriptions of the cars.
Aurya Pratap Singh, 23
Javier Artemio Ruvalcaba, 23
Jacourtney Deshawn Carter, 23
Chermeine Vedell Carter, 29
Reginald Dale Harris III, 22
The five were all charged with felony robbery and conspiracy. Jacourtney Deshawn Carter and Chermeine Vedell Carter were also charged with resisting arrest. Reginald Dale Harris III was additionally charged with felony evading and resisting arrest.
Three blacks, one Latino and one Sikh.
Who says diversity doesn’t work? This is a heart-warming story!