We talk about rates, but crime is cumulative. The bodies pile up until they’ve passed from living memory. Who forgets being raped, beaten, or robbed?
Likewise, inflation adds up until there’s some rare deflation. Most wages might catch up eventually, but you'll still notice it decades later when you have to pay tax on gains from inflation.
Call it the /pol/ effect. Everything's a conspiracy; nothing is as it seems.
Of course, I don't blindly rule out "conspiracy theories" (unless they're extremely dumb--e.g., flat erf). Why? Well, take for example that TPTB tell us men can get pregnant and that Jeffrey Epstein killed himself. Demonstrably, then, they will tell you outright lies when they're properly motivated to do so.
Look at the way Alex Jones and similar people frame any headline, versus how a typical newspaper x years ago would have framed the same. Sensationalized is a mild way to put it.
All of social media seems to produce this effect. To put it another way, it's not just Trump-Derangement-Syndrome sufferers who are hit by this kind of thing. It's everyone. It's a society-wide problem that we are poorly equipped to deal with.
It hinges on what "down" means in a practical sense. Your graph shows it all: Yes, homicides are "down" in 2024, in the sense that the graph is trending downward, but the number of homicides is still much higher than 8-10 years ago. Similarly, a while ago the Biden administration touted that inflation had "declined"; yes, for one month, after 15 months of increasing!
The problem with this analysis is there are no alternative explanations offered to the decline in crime.
From Taki-Mag article: "...the worst kind of crime started falling about when the Democratic Establishment stopped egging it on a couple of years ago for fear of blowing the 2022 midterm elections."
I read that to mean, crime started to (gradually) decline around mid-202, or at least no longer increased. But the wind-down of the long Covid disruption in the Big-Blue areas of hte USA also aligns nicely with that timeline. Does it not? The disruptions to normal life were exploited by criminals. The restrictions and wide range of soft and hard restrictions and disruptions receded in early 2022, and could almost be called almost-entirely "over" by mid-spring 2022. Common spaces started again to be recolonized by Normalcy, the incentives of 20202 and 2021 were lessened and then became less tenable. Even criminals follow the iron-hands of Messrs. Cost and Benefit.
This seems like a strong alternative explanation. I mean, if held up against a purely political explanation which relies solely on racial demagoguery by one political party ahead of one election. This is not to say that said racial-demagoguery was unimportant. It is to say that it was all part of a wider package in those strange few years, the early 2020s, that shall be long in memory with a bit of a sense of embarrassment, shame, and pain.
We talk about rates, but crime is cumulative. The bodies pile up until they’ve passed from living memory. Who forgets being raped, beaten, or robbed?
Likewise, inflation adds up until there’s some rare deflation. Most wages might catch up eventually, but you'll still notice it decades later when you have to pay tax on gains from inflation.
Call it the /pol/ effect. Everything's a conspiracy; nothing is as it seems.
Of course, I don't blindly rule out "conspiracy theories" (unless they're extremely dumb--e.g., flat erf). Why? Well, take for example that TPTB tell us men can get pregnant and that Jeffrey Epstein killed himself. Demonstrably, then, they will tell you outright lies when they're properly motivated to do so.
Look at the way Alex Jones and similar people frame any headline, versus how a typical newspaper x years ago would have framed the same. Sensationalized is a mild way to put it.
All of social media seems to produce this effect. To put it another way, it's not just Trump-Derangement-Syndrome sufferers who are hit by this kind of thing. It's everyone. It's a society-wide problem that we are poorly equipped to deal with.
It hinges on what "down" means in a practical sense. Your graph shows it all: Yes, homicides are "down" in 2024, in the sense that the graph is trending downward, but the number of homicides is still much higher than 8-10 years ago. Similarly, a while ago the Biden administration touted that inflation had "declined"; yes, for one month, after 15 months of increasing!
The problem with this analysis is there are no alternative explanations offered to the decline in crime.
From Taki-Mag article: "...the worst kind of crime started falling about when the Democratic Establishment stopped egging it on a couple of years ago for fear of blowing the 2022 midterm elections."
I read that to mean, crime started to (gradually) decline around mid-202, or at least no longer increased. But the wind-down of the long Covid disruption in the Big-Blue areas of hte USA also aligns nicely with that timeline. Does it not? The disruptions to normal life were exploited by criminals. The restrictions and wide range of soft and hard restrictions and disruptions receded in early 2022, and could almost be called almost-entirely "over" by mid-spring 2022. Common spaces started again to be recolonized by Normalcy, the incentives of 20202 and 2021 were lessened and then became less tenable. Even criminals follow the iron-hands of Messrs. Cost and Benefit.
This seems like a strong alternative explanation. I mean, if held up against a purely political explanation which relies solely on racial demagoguery by one political party ahead of one election. This is not to say that said racial-demagoguery was unimportant. It is to say that it was all part of a wider package in those strange few years, the early 2020s, that shall be long in memory with a bit of a sense of embarrassment, shame, and pain.