The Biden Crisis: Deep State Theory vs. Peak State Theory

The Joe Biden Crisis offers a test of the popular Deep State theory vs. my Peak State theory. Is the President a powerless puppet of shadowy behind-the-scenes figures, as Deep State theorists presume? Or is the man in charge of the President usually the President himself, even though, as in this case, he’s just a shell of his former self?

Deep State theorists tend to be lacking in details about what exactly are the names of the powers behind the throne and how they enact their will.

My experience of how power tends to work in the modern world, in contrast, is that the guy nominally in charge tends to be really in charge.

Of course, there are large fields in which political power is highly limited. For example, if a leftist gets elected El Presidente of Guatelombia on a platform of radical increases in workers’ wages, he will quickly find out that international financial markets won’t be enthusiastic about playing ball.

Nor is it easy to get bureaucracies to do what they don’t want to do. In the summer of 1914, for instance, elected and hereditary leaders discovered somewhat to their surprise that the vast machinery of modern military mobilization radically curtailed their freedom to maneuver diplomatically at the last moment.

But in purely political realms like whether Biden runs for re-election, Peak State theory suggests that the decision rests far more in the hands of Biden and whatever small or tiny number of advisors the old bastard trusts.

From the New York Times news section, there are are some clues toward the end of this article:

The White House Brushed Off Questions About Biden’s Age. Then the Debate Happened.

President Biden’s allies can no longer wave away concerns about his capacity after his unsteady performance at Thursday’s debate as worries among Democrats grow.

By Peter Baker

Peter Baker has covered the past five presidents.

Published June 28, 2024

Ever since President Biden announced last year that he would run again, those in his inner circle closed ranks and brushed off the obvious question: No, they insisted, he was not too old to seek re-election.

… Then the debate happened. And now the days of denial at the White House are over. …

The Biden team seized on validation from Democratic allies like former President Barack Obama and Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina to reject calls on the president to cede the nomination to a younger candidate.

But many distressed Democrats, including some in his own administration, were left wondering how it had come to this and, fairly or not, faulted the president’s team for letting it happen: How could those closest to Mr. Biden not have talked him out of running? …

Have you tried talking President Biden out of his final ambition?

When it comes to his age, Mr. Biden can present differently depending on the moment. …

Another NYT article claims that Biden is okay from roughly 10 AM to 4 PM, but then in effect admits that Sundowner Effect hits him hard. Presumably, the week of debate prep was supposed to get him to change his internal clock around to be in his good phase at 9 PM EDT for the debate, but, obviously, that didn’t work.

If any of the president’s advisers has ever addressed Mr. Biden’s age with him in a forthright way, they have not acknowledged it. According to recent interviews with dozens of his closest aides and friends, the president engaged in no organized process outside of his family in deciding to run for a second term.

None of the advisers described a meeting or a memo that outlined pros and cons of a re-election campaign that might have addressed the consequences of age. None said they discouraged him from running or, for that matter, discussed how to address his age if he did. Instead, he simply told them to assume he was running unless he decided otherwise.

But what about Biden’s all-powerful “handlers?”

Well, they aren’t all-powerful. In fact, they are there to facilitate the Big Guy doing what he wants, not to tell him what the Really Important People want him to do. Biden hired them and Biden can fire them. To them, Biden is the most powerful man in the world, especially in their world.

Such a conversation would be painfully difficult for presidential aides. There is something fundamentally different about raising such a personal issue with a boss as opposed to impersonal factors like battleground states, polling or policy questions.

Mr. Biden’s closest current and former aides, like Ron Klain, Anita Dunn, Jeffrey D. Zients, Steve Ricchetti, Mike Donilon, Jen O’Malley Dillon and Bruce Reed, deeply admire and respect the president. They would not want to hurt him and they see the best in him, according to fellow Democrats.

“He’s famous for having really, really loyal people,” Ms. Kamarck said. “He’s like a father to Ron Klain. What do you say to your father? This is tough, very tough.”

Biden’s “handlers” don’t have an independent power base. They are creatures of Joe Biden. For most, as soon as Biden is no longer president, their careers will permanently downshift.

My impression is that they are moderately competent staffers of the kind of which Washington has no shortage, distinguished mostly by their long term proven loyalty to Biden.

Presumably, in return for a good job offer, somebody out there is trying to get an insider to flip and talk Biden into retiring.

But it’s not like the orders have come down from the Powers That Be whom Biden must obey.

That’s not how it works. Instead, it’s all very messy, personal, and uncertain.

… James Carville, who helped run Mr. Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, said Mr. Biden’s circle was tight. “People around President Biden have been with him forever,” he said. “I think the culture of their White House is different than the one I would be familiar with.” He added that “those people are very good” but “Ron or Mike or Anita, they’re not peers.”

Much less being in charge of telling the President what to do with his career, as many Deep State theorists assume.

Indeed, given his age and experience, Mr. Biden has few people he truly sees as peers, as much as anyone could be a peer to a president. His relations with Mr. Clinton and Mr. Obama are complicated, and some Biden advisers said he would bristle if either of those former presidents had told him last year not to run or told him now to think about dropping out.

Biden knows that most people who know him well, such as Obama, don’t think he’s all that smart, and that has always angered him.

Most of the senators Mr. Biden served with for so many years, the ones whose opinions he valued, are largely gone. Ted Kaufman, his close friend and longtime aide who succeeded him in the Senate, has been one of the most supportive of a re-election bid.

Kaufman is 85.

The only people advisers believe would carry influence with him about such a profound decision would be family members, particularly Jill Biden, the first lady, who was said to have strongly encouraged a re-election campaign in the first place, and his sister, Valerie Biden Owens, who was his political consigliere through his years in the Senate.

Biden has always been a bit of an ornery knucklehead, and senility usually doesn’t moderate that disposition. Dr. Jill doesn’t seem all that reasonable, either.

It’s possible the President’s sister, 78, might get him to change his mind. She keeps a fairly low profile these days and nobody seems to know what she thinks of this week’s excitement.

Once again, though, that would not exactly be Klaus Schwab calling tother the Inner Party of the WEF in Davos to determine what orders to issue to Biden, or whatever other Deep State theory is popular.

“He’s a very proud guy,” said Mr. Axelrod, who worked alongside Mr. Biden when he was Mr. Obama’s vice president.

Biden is an egomaniac like Trump. He’s just a peculiarly unentertaining egomaniac.

“He’s a guy who always believes that he’s been underestimated his whole life and that he’s defied those odds.” …

Still, I would guess that Biden will ultimately be brought around to announcing his retirement by the arguments that there is no shame in growing old, it happens to the best of us, and that the American people and history will look well upon him for recognizing that sad fact.

Note: I hope to get back to doing some non-political writing as well as Election 2024 work shortly.