I’m an oldster…but not as old as Joe, so I’m getting sort of interested in seeing what happens after “the end of democracy”, if that’s what’s coming. Will it be like France after they ran out of bloodlust and the guillotine dulled? Republic # 2?
It’s going to boil down to who can control the campaign money. If Biden can’t, then Harris can access it. If both are out, that money can’t just be rerouted easily. Yes, Dem donors will step up behind another candidate, but they are running out of time. Always follow the money.
The Democrats usually have a good short game which results in them accruing yet more power and wealth and all the things. The shock of losing in 2016 still hasn't worn off, so we can expect lots of money and honey to pull this one out. After all, The Blob must live on in perpetuity, or the End of Democracy (The Blob itself) will occur. Unacceptable.
The Republicans remain a Party in transition to, well, what the Democrats were formerly, the Party of the working class, forgotten, etc. Trump is the current leader of the whole heaving mess and may possibly have learned some lessons over the last several years, but the temptations presented during a UFC-ish election season may well prove too great for him avoid further self-demonization with/without the help of what is commonly referred to as TDS.
External factors like, oh, Taiwan/Israel/Iran/Russia/etc. may color all of the above. So, it's a smoldering mess at the present. Other than that, things are just fine!
My guess (only a guess) is that because NV doesn’t allow ballot changes after final Friday in June, the parties tell the Sec of State (or whoever) who to put on the ballot for the various races prior to that date.
Wait, why is Wisconsin a problem? I would have thought this provision would have controlled:
8.16 Partisan Nominations
. . .
(7) Nominees chosen at a national convention and under s. 8.18 (2) by each party entitled to a partisan primary ballot shall be the party's candidates for president, vice president and presidential electors. The state or national chairperson of each such party shall certify the names of the party's nominees for president and vice president to the commission no later than 5 p.m. on the first Tuesday in September preceding a presidential election. Each name shall be in one of the formats authorized in s. 7.08 (2) (a).
It is strange that someone like Harris, who came in close to last in her only run for the presidency with 844 votes in the primary, is now next in line to be the Democratic party leader and standard bearer, purely out of luck essentially. She was only a senator for four years before becoming vice president compared to the decades of public service of past VPs vying for the presidency like GHWB, Gore, and even Biden.
BO had the same time in the Senate before he ran. She at least had several executive positions (add your own imagery) before that, while Barry was a state senator and part time law professor.
That is true, but Obama won a primary on his merits as an underdog against well-established opponents. Harris failed at this same thing. It would be like Biden and Obama swapping positions in 2008, with Biden beating Clinton and then choosing Obama as his running mate had he received no votes in the primary. Of course, Obama had good reason to choose Biden to appease the party's establishment (which doesn't exist anymore, incidentally). Biden chose Harris purely due to identity politics because, despite whatever flaws Obama had, he was a lot smarter and more charismatic than Harris.
I wouldn't use the word "luck." I mean, there is much more to the story. You are kind to phrase it with the word "luck, essentially" and leaving it at that,.
Well, even taking identity politics into account, I think Harris is lucky to have been elected a senator, then chosen as a VP nominee without much experience, then to have Biden win, have him decide to run again for some reason, and now be in a position to replace him as the nominee without an open primary. She is lucky she was selected over another black person or another woman when she lacks many of the fundamental traits of a successful politician.
The sentencing in the NY case got postponed until September 18th, because the jury's verdict was based in part on communications with aides and the public that Trump made while President. Since Trump may well have immunity from prosecution over those actions per the recent Trump v. United States SCOTUS case, Judge Merchan has delayed the sentencing hearing, and acknowledged the potential that it might not be necessary at all, so both sides can brief and argue the question. Either way, Trump gets a significant reprieve, and the Dems won't have booking photos to plaster on campaign ads for a few more months.
I’m an oldster…but not as old as Joe, so I’m getting sort of interested in seeing what happens after “the end of democracy”, if that’s what’s coming. Will it be like France after they ran out of bloodlust and the guillotine dulled? Republic # 2?
It’s going to boil down to who can control the campaign money. If Biden can’t, then Harris can access it. If both are out, that money can’t just be rerouted easily. Yes, Dem donors will step up behind another candidate, but they are running out of time. Always follow the money.
Listen to this person…
The Democrats usually have a good short game which results in them accruing yet more power and wealth and all the things. The shock of losing in 2016 still hasn't worn off, so we can expect lots of money and honey to pull this one out. After all, The Blob must live on in perpetuity, or the End of Democracy (The Blob itself) will occur. Unacceptable.
The Republicans remain a Party in transition to, well, what the Democrats were formerly, the Party of the working class, forgotten, etc. Trump is the current leader of the whole heaving mess and may possibly have learned some lessons over the last several years, but the temptations presented during a UFC-ish election season may well prove too great for him avoid further self-demonization with/without the help of what is commonly referred to as TDS.
External factors like, oh, Taiwan/Israel/Iran/Russia/etc. may color all of the above. So, it's a smoldering mess at the present. Other than that, things are just fine!
1 2 3 1
What is this, a waltz?
I thought the Ohio problem was solved a month ago.
IIRC, Wisconsin problem stands still: it is too late to remove Biden from that ballot. Can Dems renounce Wisconsin and win?
Not just WI! In NV, no ballot changes after 4th Friday in June unless candidate dies or is adjudicated insane or mentally incompetent.
How can the states do that when he isn't the official nominee yet?
My guess (only a guess) is that because NV doesn’t allow ballot changes after final Friday in June, the parties tell the Sec of State (or whoever) who to put on the ballot for the various races prior to that date.
Only a guess, though.
Wait, why is Wisconsin a problem? I would have thought this provision would have controlled:
8.16 Partisan Nominations
. . .
(7) Nominees chosen at a national convention and under s. 8.18 (2) by each party entitled to a partisan primary ballot shall be the party's candidates for president, vice president and presidential electors. The state or national chairperson of each such party shall certify the names of the party's nominees for president and vice president to the commission no later than 5 p.m. on the first Tuesday in September preceding a presidential election. Each name shall be in one of the formats authorized in s. 7.08 (2) (a).
If i got Beattie right, since Biden was certified under a different article, this article does not count or it will cost a litigation.
"His sentencing is coming up shortly."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/nyregion/trump-sentencing-hush-money-trial.html
https://archive.ph/tdbxN
"Judge Delays Trump’s Sentencing Until Sept. 18 After Immunity Claim"
Dems are doomed no matter who they put up. All of the possibles are either bad candidates, bad campaigners, or both.
No chance, that’s what they’ve got. No chance in hell.
It is strange that someone like Harris, who came in close to last in her only run for the presidency with 844 votes in the primary, is now next in line to be the Democratic party leader and standard bearer, purely out of luck essentially. She was only a senator for four years before becoming vice president compared to the decades of public service of past VPs vying for the presidency like GHWB, Gore, and even Biden.
BO had the same time in the Senate before he ran. She at least had several executive positions (add your own imagery) before that, while Barry was a state senator and part time law professor.
That is true, but Obama won a primary on his merits as an underdog against well-established opponents. Harris failed at this same thing. It would be like Biden and Obama swapping positions in 2008, with Biden beating Clinton and then choosing Obama as his running mate had he received no votes in the primary. Of course, Obama had good reason to choose Biden to appease the party's establishment (which doesn't exist anymore, incidentally). Biden chose Harris purely due to identity politics because, despite whatever flaws Obama had, he was a lot smarter and more charismatic than Harris.
I wouldn't use the word "luck." I mean, there is much more to the story. You are kind to phrase it with the word "luck, essentially" and leaving it at that,.
Well, even taking identity politics into account, I think Harris is lucky to have been elected a senator, then chosen as a VP nominee without much experience, then to have Biden win, have him decide to run again for some reason, and now be in a position to replace him as the nominee without an open primary. She is lucky she was selected over another black person or another woman when she lacks many of the fundamental traits of a successful politician.
The sentencing in the NY case got postponed until September 18th, because the jury's verdict was based in part on communications with aides and the public that Trump made while President. Since Trump may well have immunity from prosecution over those actions per the recent Trump v. United States SCOTUS case, Judge Merchan has delayed the sentencing hearing, and acknowledged the potential that it might not be necessary at all, so both sides can brief and argue the question. Either way, Trump gets a significant reprieve, and the Dems won't have booking photos to plaster on campaign ads for a few more months.