This should end the Iranian weapons pipeline to Hezbollah. Also what about the Russian naval base? The winners here seem to be the US, Turkey, the house of Saud, and of course, Isreal. Also, Assad wasn't meant to be the leader, he was an ophthalmologist in London, when his brother the anointed heir died in an accident.
From what various sources in the region have said so far, the Islamists told Turkey that they wanted to move, and Turkey let them. They didn't expect they would get far, perhaps not even taking Idlib, but apparently they wanted a better deal for their tacit agreement with the Syrian government. But the sanctions have destroyed 85% of Syria's economy, and the soldiers receive very little pay, like everyone else. Many soldiers had left their outposts to work civilian jobs. The commander in Idlib then ordered the soldiers out of the city. Similar to Mosul falling to ISIS, where the commander underminded defenses and then left the city - in that case he was working with ISIS.
Syria's defenses have also been weakened by the Israeli attacks on its defenses for years, with U.S.-supplied jets and missiles, which it appears is something you don't want to hear. Mustn't criticize Israelis, right? How dare people read antiwar.com and learn such hateful things! Against the facts you have only emotions and a cry of "that's anti-Semitism!!!"
If Syria's military had been gathered for defense they could have beaten the HTS, who are still weak today. It looks like no one is in power, with looting and government functions being ignored.
Though they have stationed some fighters near the Russian bases, apparently to prevent other Islamists from attacking the Russians. Wherever the Russians have withdrawn in Syria, moving to the coast, the HTS have done nothing to them. They gain from keeping the Russians in Syria. Or it's on Erdogan's orders, as he wants to be on the Russians' good side, even after double-crossing them like this shortly after a meeting with Russian diplomats. Erdogan can also use the Russian bases as leverage against Russia: "Agree with me on this one, or your bases will be attacked." Which is why the Russians will probably pull out. The radar and other functions have been useful to them, but they can do without a presence in Syria.
So Assad has as much chance to stay in power as the 1940 Redskins had of overcoming a 73 point deficit in that year's NFL championship game against Chicago.
The Sunnis over there are really into dramatic, Marxist-rebel-ly sounding names that don't seem to translate into English very well. From Wikipedia:
Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS; Arabic: هيئة تحرير الشام, romanized: Hayʼat Taḥrīr aš-Šām, lit. 'Organization for the Liberation of the Levant' or 'Levant Liberation Committee'), commonly referred to as Tahrir al-Sham, is a Sunni Islamist political and paramilitary organisation involved in the Syrian civil war. It was formed on 28 January 2017 as a merger between Jaysh al-Ahrar (an Ahrar al-Sham faction), Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS), Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq, and Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement. The unification process was held under the initiative of Abu Jaber Shaykh, an Islamist commander who had been the second Emir of Ahrar al-Sham.
These are some really retrograde people. Good luck, Syria.
As a GenXer I think part of it is that my generation was too cynical for politics and too small to impose our will. We were raised in a state of learned helplessness-- idealism would quickly be corrupted by the system, solutions would be ruined by human nature, and even accepting that and making bank as a machine politician struck us as 'gross' and uncool.
This is a region of perpetual conflict. To the extent what goes on in Syria or other areas doesn't threaten our economic security, let them have at it. The US foreign policy establishment of the past 25 years has accomplished almost nothing that benefits us, and done quite a lot of damage while enriching themselves and getting tens of thousands of soldiers maimed or killed.
It was among the sleepiest regions in the world until after WW2. The Ottomans kept a tight lid on it and the French were busy transforming Syria and Lebanon into fairly cosmopolitan colonies. The British were less successful in mandatory Palestine.
The Middle East is the place where Western liberal idealism goes to die. There's actually a strong anti-nation-state pan Arabic islamist movement over there which believes everything from Cyprus to Iraq needs to be united in a populist Islamic caliphate. Look up the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Recall Lebanon's head Sunni cleric had to be arrested by the French and forced to attend the founding ceremonies for the Lebanese state.
So basically the keys have been handed over to the Sunni rabble, like they were briefly in Egypt before the Egyptian generals decided having Copts burned alive in their own churches wasn't the society they wanted.
The "Diversity is Syria's strength" press releases indicates CIA funding; CNN has already given this guy a tongue-bath, which is another tell.
Assad Jr always truck me as someone deeply ill-matched to his job.
He was the son of tribal strongman who went off to London and became an ophthalmologist. This indicates very high IQ and a lot of hard work.
He was unlike 99% of third world ruling class progeny who float around western universities doing inconsequential degrees before heading home willingly to take over the family enterprise.
I would note that with both Syria and the Hunter pardon there were very few actual "facts" on which to base an evolving judgment. OTOH, although many people expressed their utter lack of surprise with the Hunter pardon, that viewpoint seems to have been under-represented at Polymarket.
On the other hand, there is selection bias in looking at these two surprises while ignoring all the non-surprises that haven't happened (yet...). Tricky!
Alawites are not "a hated minority." They are secular people in a secular country, and they have adapted themselves so much to the Sunnis that they are practically indistuingishable from them. There is a reason why the majority of the police and military were Sunnis for generations and got along just fine with the Alawite rulers.
Syria is so secular, they used to ban female teachers from wearing headscarves. (Though in order to appease the Islamist protesters in the beginning of this conflict, they allowed the teachers to wear headscarves and banned casinos.) Islamist rule is no more normal in Syria than theocratic rule would be in a West European country today. The Islamists are mainly foreigners and Erdogan's Turkmen, though the latter are probably in reality more motivated by taking land and benefits than proselytizing.
al-Julani is not in power, no one is. Museums etc are looted. The Islamists will not be moving to free Syria's oil fields from the illegal U.S. occupation and they won't move to free the Golan Heights from Israel's illegal occupation. The Islamists are just glad to be away from their small corner.
Earlier during the war Israel functioned as al-Qaeda's air force in southern Syria, bombing the Syrian military when they fought al-Qaeda. Israel gave the Islamists money and medical aid and when they were pressured they were given shelter on the Israeli side of the border, to reappear somewhere else. When al-Qaeda was finally defeated in the south, Israel arranged for their transport by helicopter to Jordan. ISIS shelled Palestinian neighborhoods in Damascus, as the Palestinians opposed them. When ISIS accidentally shelled the Israeli side of the border once, they apologized. Israeli politicians and their Washington lackeys said they wanted the terrorists to take over Syria.
The HTS aren't good fighters; where the Syrian military actually pushed back they stalled or even pulled back. But Syria is impoverished by U.S. sanctions that have destroyed 85% of its economy, ruining people's lives on behalf of the Israeli lobby. The soldiers were paid very little, like everyone, and many had left their outposts to do civilian work. The commander in Idlib ordered the troops to leave the city, and that's why it fell. Just like the governor of Mosul did everything to undermine its defenses before ISIS attacked and then left the city with his closest aides, showing the military that the defense was hopeless. In that case it turned out that he was on ISIS' side.
The Kurds were fools. When the U.S. commanded them they attacked Arab towns and villages, in order to help the Islamists. They could take some of them as the Syrian defenders were moving toward Idlib. Now what? They have Islamists to deal with instead, who are supported by Turkey. And Erdogan is going to make sure that the Kurdish separatist threat is dealt with in its Syrian base. Though it might take a while, it's coming. The Kurds had every chance to side with Syria instead, and they actually had some agreement as they need the trade with the coastline. They need imports and they need to sell exports. The coast is crucial to them. Now Erdogan's Islamists control it.
Long ago, when Mosul was freed from ISIS, the Kurds opened up their part of the encirclement, so ISIS could escape into Syria and attack government defenders. They allowed ISIS to pass through their territory several times. They allowed former ISIS soldiers to join them. You can see pictures of Kurdish and ISIS border guards smoking cigarettes together. The Kurds disarmed the Yazidis, and then left in the middle of the night without telling them ISIS were coming - so the Yazidis were captured, rahped and murdered, and then the Kurds could move in and take their land. When ISIS were weak and would lose the oil fields to the approaching Syrian army, they instead gave up the oil fields to the Kurds, who they only fought nominally before withdrawing.
Even right in the beginning, the violence was started by Kurds and Iraqi Sunnis moving to Syria's western cities where they started mass protests for jobs and food. They brought in Kurdish commanders from the PKK in Turkey - YPG was just their new name.
The Kurds burned Arab-owned wheat fields, they occupied the water reserves, and helped the U.S. occupy the oil reserves. They drew up maps of their "Kurdistan" stretching over one third of Syria.
Now they'll have to deal with Turkey operating freely against them, instead of being citizens under Syria's secular government.
Prediction markets, like markets for stocks, probably require broad participation to predict effectively. Only the “Big Guy” knew whether he was going to pardon Hunter, or sign the order. Absent the wisdom of crowds, little if any additional information will appear.
This should end the Iranian weapons pipeline to Hezbollah. Also what about the Russian naval base? The winners here seem to be the US, Turkey, the house of Saud, and of course, Isreal. Also, Assad wasn't meant to be the leader, he was an ophthalmologist in London, when his brother the anointed heir died in an accident.
Bizarre. I don't think a pan-national Sunni caliphate is good for anybody over there.
Steve, it appears that Abu Mohammad al-Julani is a woke terrorist. It might turn out well for the Jews.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/leader-jihadist-rebels-syria-declares-diversity-strength
I look forward to learning the Jews were behind the whole thing (bonus points if it can be linked to Hawk Tuah girl's crypto scandal)
From what various sources in the region have said so far, the Islamists told Turkey that they wanted to move, and Turkey let them. They didn't expect they would get far, perhaps not even taking Idlib, but apparently they wanted a better deal for their tacit agreement with the Syrian government. But the sanctions have destroyed 85% of Syria's economy, and the soldiers receive very little pay, like everyone else. Many soldiers had left their outposts to work civilian jobs. The commander in Idlib then ordered the soldiers out of the city. Similar to Mosul falling to ISIS, where the commander underminded defenses and then left the city - in that case he was working with ISIS.
Syria's defenses have also been weakened by the Israeli attacks on its defenses for years, with U.S.-supplied jets and missiles, which it appears is something you don't want to hear. Mustn't criticize Israelis, right? How dare people read antiwar.com and learn such hateful things! Against the facts you have only emotions and a cry of "that's anti-Semitism!!!"
If Syria's military had been gathered for defense they could have beaten the HTS, who are still weak today. It looks like no one is in power, with looting and government functions being ignored.
Though they have stationed some fighters near the Russian bases, apparently to prevent other Islamists from attacking the Russians. Wherever the Russians have withdrawn in Syria, moving to the coast, the HTS have done nothing to them. They gain from keeping the Russians in Syria. Or it's on Erdogan's orders, as he wants to be on the Russians' good side, even after double-crossing them like this shortly after a meeting with Russian diplomats. Erdogan can also use the Russian bases as leverage against Russia: "Agree with me on this one, or your bases will be attacked." Which is why the Russians will probably pull out. The radar and other functions have been useful to them, but they can do without a presence in Syria.
One of the lessons of the past few years is that sanctions can work. When I was young I thought they were BS, symbolism.
So Assad has as much chance to stay in power as the 1940 Redskins had of overcoming a 73 point deficit in that year's NFL championship game against Chicago.
I’m having trouble these days seeing whether the arc of history is bending in the correct direction.
There's now an eye doctor with an open schedule, but I doubt he'll go to Maine.
The Sunnis over there are really into dramatic, Marxist-rebel-ly sounding names that don't seem to translate into English very well. From Wikipedia:
Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS; Arabic: هيئة تحرير الشام, romanized: Hayʼat Taḥrīr aš-Šām, lit. 'Organization for the Liberation of the Levant' or 'Levant Liberation Committee'), commonly referred to as Tahrir al-Sham, is a Sunni Islamist political and paramilitary organisation involved in the Syrian civil war. It was formed on 28 January 2017 as a merger between Jaysh al-Ahrar (an Ahrar al-Sham faction), Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS), Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq, and Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement. The unification process was held under the initiative of Abu Jaber Shaykh, an Islamist commander who had been the second Emir of Ahrar al-Sham.
These are some really retrograde people. Good luck, Syria.
Splitters!!!!!
"why in this century we get the same guys for decades?"
Is it much different from the last century?
Shouldn't this new guy be grateful to Israel for hamstringing Hezbollah, not that politicians are ever big on gratitude?
As a GenXer I think part of it is that my generation was too cynical for politics and too small to impose our will. We were raised in a state of learned helplessness-- idealism would quickly be corrupted by the system, solutions would be ruined by human nature, and even accepting that and making bank as a machine politician struck us as 'gross' and uncool.
This is a region of perpetual conflict. To the extent what goes on in Syria or other areas doesn't threaten our economic security, let them have at it. The US foreign policy establishment of the past 25 years has accomplished almost nothing that benefits us, and done quite a lot of damage while enriching themselves and getting tens of thousands of soldiers maimed or killed.
It was among the sleepiest regions in the world until after WW2. The Ottomans kept a tight lid on it and the French were busy transforming Syria and Lebanon into fairly cosmopolitan colonies. The British were less successful in mandatory Palestine.
Better the devil you know.
The Middle East is the place where Western liberal idealism goes to die. There's actually a strong anti-nation-state pan Arabic islamist movement over there which believes everything from Cyprus to Iraq needs to be united in a populist Islamic caliphate. Look up the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Recall Lebanon's head Sunni cleric had to be arrested by the French and forced to attend the founding ceremonies for the Lebanese state.
So basically the keys have been handed over to the Sunni rabble, like they were briefly in Egypt before the Egyptian generals decided having Copts burned alive in their own churches wasn't the society they wanted.
The "Diversity is Syria's strength" press releases indicates CIA funding; CNN has already given this guy a tongue-bath, which is another tell.
Anyway, good luck Syria.
Assad Jr always truck me as someone deeply ill-matched to his job.
He was the son of tribal strongman who went off to London and became an ophthalmologist. This indicates very high IQ and a lot of hard work.
He was unlike 99% of third world ruling class progeny who float around western universities doing inconsequential degrees before heading home willingly to take over the family enterprise.
He wasn’t expected to take over from his father. Then the heir, his older brother, was killed in an accident.
That’s my point!
Both his nature (high-IQ antisocial type) and nurture (not groomed for power) he was ill-matched to the role of being a poor-country dictator.
Polymarket also whiffed badly on Joe Biden's pardon of Hunter. The odds flatlined around 28% until they went straight to 100%.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-joe-pardon-hunter-biden?tid=1733748921919
I would note that with both Syria and the Hunter pardon there were very few actual "facts" on which to base an evolving judgment. OTOH, although many people expressed their utter lack of surprise with the Hunter pardon, that viewpoint seems to have been under-represented at Polymarket.
On the other hand, there is selection bias in looking at these two surprises while ignoring all the non-surprises that haven't happened (yet...). Tricky!
Here comes Greater Syria if the current leader of this hot mess gets his way.
Alawites are not "a hated minority." They are secular people in a secular country, and they have adapted themselves so much to the Sunnis that they are practically indistuingishable from them. There is a reason why the majority of the police and military were Sunnis for generations and got along just fine with the Alawite rulers.
Syria is so secular, they used to ban female teachers from wearing headscarves. (Though in order to appease the Islamist protesters in the beginning of this conflict, they allowed the teachers to wear headscarves and banned casinos.) Islamist rule is no more normal in Syria than theocratic rule would be in a West European country today. The Islamists are mainly foreigners and Erdogan's Turkmen, though the latter are probably in reality more motivated by taking land and benefits than proselytizing.
al-Julani is not in power, no one is. Museums etc are looted. The Islamists will not be moving to free Syria's oil fields from the illegal U.S. occupation and they won't move to free the Golan Heights from Israel's illegal occupation. The Islamists are just glad to be away from their small corner.
Earlier during the war Israel functioned as al-Qaeda's air force in southern Syria, bombing the Syrian military when they fought al-Qaeda. Israel gave the Islamists money and medical aid and when they were pressured they were given shelter on the Israeli side of the border, to reappear somewhere else. When al-Qaeda was finally defeated in the south, Israel arranged for their transport by helicopter to Jordan. ISIS shelled Palestinian neighborhoods in Damascus, as the Palestinians opposed them. When ISIS accidentally shelled the Israeli side of the border once, they apologized. Israeli politicians and their Washington lackeys said they wanted the terrorists to take over Syria.
The HTS aren't good fighters; where the Syrian military actually pushed back they stalled or even pulled back. But Syria is impoverished by U.S. sanctions that have destroyed 85% of its economy, ruining people's lives on behalf of the Israeli lobby. The soldiers were paid very little, like everyone, and many had left their outposts to do civilian work. The commander in Idlib ordered the troops to leave the city, and that's why it fell. Just like the governor of Mosul did everything to undermine its defenses before ISIS attacked and then left the city with his closest aides, showing the military that the defense was hopeless. In that case it turned out that he was on ISIS' side.
The Kurds were fools. When the U.S. commanded them they attacked Arab towns and villages, in order to help the Islamists. They could take some of them as the Syrian defenders were moving toward Idlib. Now what? They have Islamists to deal with instead, who are supported by Turkey. And Erdogan is going to make sure that the Kurdish separatist threat is dealt with in its Syrian base. Though it might take a while, it's coming. The Kurds had every chance to side with Syria instead, and they actually had some agreement as they need the trade with the coastline. They need imports and they need to sell exports. The coast is crucial to them. Now Erdogan's Islamists control it.
Long ago, when Mosul was freed from ISIS, the Kurds opened up their part of the encirclement, so ISIS could escape into Syria and attack government defenders. They allowed ISIS to pass through their territory several times. They allowed former ISIS soldiers to join them. You can see pictures of Kurdish and ISIS border guards smoking cigarettes together. The Kurds disarmed the Yazidis, and then left in the middle of the night without telling them ISIS were coming - so the Yazidis were captured, rahped and murdered, and then the Kurds could move in and take their land. When ISIS were weak and would lose the oil fields to the approaching Syrian army, they instead gave up the oil fields to the Kurds, who they only fought nominally before withdrawing.
Even right in the beginning, the violence was started by Kurds and Iraqi Sunnis moving to Syria's western cities where they started mass protests for jobs and food. They brought in Kurdish commanders from the PKK in Turkey - YPG was just their new name.
The Kurds burned Arab-owned wheat fields, they occupied the water reserves, and helped the U.S. occupy the oil reserves. They drew up maps of their "Kurdistan" stretching over one third of Syria.
Now they'll have to deal with Turkey operating freely against them, instead of being citizens under Syria's secular government.
Prediction markets, like markets for stocks, probably require broad participation to predict effectively. Only the “Big Guy” knew whether he was going to pardon Hunter, or sign the order. Absent the wisdom of crowds, little if any additional information will appear.
“Anybody have any good theories why in this century we get the same guys for decades?“
Paleo diet?