"The Trump Bump: The Republican Fertility Advantage in 2024"

The Institute for Family Studies documents that Trump-leaning counties have more babies than Harris-leaning counties.

I first wrote about how GOP presidential candidates did better in states with higher white fertility two decades ago in December 2004. Today, from the Institute for Family Studies:

The Trump Bump: The Republican Fertility Advantage in 2024

Grant Bailey and Lyman Stone

Grant Bailey is a Research Associate of the Institute for Family Studies. Lyman Stone is Senior Fellow and Director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies.

December 19, 2024

An r-squared of 0.26 is a moderately strong r of 0.51: not spectacular, but real.

… Those counties that voted for Trump tended to have much higher fertility rates than those that did not. This relationship is quite strong. For every 10% increase in votes for Trump in 2024, there is an expected increase of 0.09 babies in a woman’s lifetime. While 0.09 babies does not sound like much, the effect of this Republican advantage shows most prominently at the tail ends of county votes. Counties that had less than 25% of their vote share for Trump, such as D.C., had a median total fertility rate of 1.31. In contrast, counties that had more than 75% of their vote share for Trump had a median total fertility rate of 1.84.

The rest is below the paywall: