Science says that this [unnamed] guy's theory, which he keeps promoting, even though we've never deigned mention it, must be wrong. Not that we're going to mention his name.
We just had a case of the Sailer Law of Mass Shootings in Towson, MD. Outside a funeral parlor, nine were wounded and one killed in a mass shooting. Towson was once a choice suburb for the Baltimore elite but proximity to Baltimore City and Section 8 housing has led to a decline in the city of Towson. As of 2020, Towson's white population had dropped to 66 %.
Sad to say, Donald Trump was a leader in the move to depopulate the prisons just before 2020. More bad people hit the streets in the months leading up to the 2020 shutdown of the economy and the George Floyd conflagrations. Black mayhem is just one of those things Americans have to get used to just like mosquitos in the summer, massive snowfalls off the Great Lakes in the winter, weeds in the garden and liberal nanny-staters explaining how they can remake the world into a paradise.
All of these talking around the real issue explanations essentially come down to the idea that unless blacks are living in the most controlled conditions they turn into homicidal maniacs, which people like Bump deep down believe but cannot say explicitly. Onset of summer? Naturally blacks go crazy in the heat. Looser gun laws in Indiana than Chicago? Those IN guns magically migrate to the south and west sides and into the hands of scholars turned shooters. Less work available for low skill blacks? One cannot expect them to do anything other than turn to murder as opposed to maybe help out around the house or offer to do small jobs for family and neighbors.
In the end, the left does sincerely believe blacks are a unique and extremely hard to govern subset of the population and they need stuff like work to keep them out of trouble. Rather than recognize that the influx of legal and illegal immigrants they embraced turned millions of blacks into only loosely or not at all employed people was a social disaster, it's make-work summer jobs programs, rec centers, and hip hop poetry contests. How's that working out?
This is true everywhere - Latinos are cheaper and harder working. Blacks used to be a big presence in drywall and painting trades, now they are virtually non-existent. I have talked to black guys that own construction-oriented businesses and they all have said they wished they could hire other blacks but as one said "I have a business to run and I need to make money."
Blacks really shot themselves in the foot when it came to their unbelievable loyalty to the Democratic party. 30 or 40 years ago black politicians recognized large scale immigration was a threat to their constituents' jobs, and if the CBC had put their foot down 15 years ago on immigration they probably would have gotten what they wanted. I think many eventually drank the Kool-Aid on the argument that more diversity of any kind was good because they would all unite against whites under the Dem banner and have an unassailable grip on power. That sort of ignored the rather obvious reality that each major ethnic group has their own interests and priorities and no one other than prog whites are willing to surrender their own in favor of black demands.
The son of the owner of the building I had my business in Washington used to do build-outs with a black crew. He was a very liberal Jew. But he once told me that without Hispanic construction workers, nothing could be built in Washington.
Most American blacks are just fine, so I think you mean that a relatively large proportion of American blacks are feral, for feral people need relatively authoritarian and controlled social conditions.
I agree that race relations leftists implicitly have no faith in American black's culture to heal itself of the feral-ness problem, but leftists in general in the USA and other countries make matters worse by decreasing various kinds of social controls and by allowing excessive immigration.
The other trick he pulls (aside from arbitrary start and end dates) is wide x-axis combined with drawing straight lines between (what I assume are) discrete weekly data points. It makes it look like the spike in murders on the day of Floyd's death was an upward trend from the week before.
It looks like the week of Floyd's death was the peak in 2019 while in 2020 murders continued upwards.
Both graphs, though Sailers to a much lesser extent, invite the viewer to engage in the same semi-mystical pattern viewing that leads technical investors astray.
I'm not super deep on stats, but surely there is some (or some set of) standard technique(s) to detect when a change in time series data has occurred. Until Bump runs those he can't assert that the data support his position. If you eliminate his dotted lines optical illusion, I think the naive technical investor analysis supports Steve's version better than his.
It occurs to me what you want to do is subtract the average seasonal variation from the 2020 curve. For each week, average the murders fro say 2015-2019, and subtract that from the murders for the same week from 2020. Then you should be able to eyeball when/if the unusual thing happened.
¡Blacks! must be front-and-center in every analysis...
Brookings and Bump misdirect by omission. They fail to include the race of the perpetrator in their time-series graphs, allowing the noise in the white data to swamp the signal in the black data.
Also I asked chatGPT for an explanation about Bump failing to mention Steve Sailer. If you say his name, you might summon him:
Yes, medieval people believed that certain names or words carried such power or sanctity that speaking them could have dire consequences or unintended effects. This idea stemmed from widespread beliefs about the power of words and names to summon or influence supernatural forces. Here are some examples of names or phrases that were considered taboo or dangerous to utter:
---
### **1. The Name of God (Tetragrammaton)**
- **Context**: In Jewish and Christian traditions, the name of God, represented by the four Hebrew letters **YHWH**, was considered too sacred to be spoken aloud. Instead, substitutes like "Adonai" (Lord) or "Dominus" were used.
- **Reason**: Saying the name improperly was thought to risk divine wrath or to profane its sanctity.
- This practice influenced medieval Christians, who also avoided direct invocation of God's name outside formal prayers.
---
### **2. Names of Demons and Evil Spirits**
- **Context**: Names of demons or malevolent entities were often avoided to prevent inadvertently summoning them. Examples include:
- **Lucifer**: The fallen angel associated with Satan.
- **Beelzebub**, **Asmodeus**, and other demonic figures named in grimoires or religious texts.
- **Reason**: It was believed that saying a demon's name gave it power or called its attention to the speaker.
---
### **3. Saints or Angels' Names in Vain**
- **Context**: Invoking the names of saints or angels lightly or improperly was thought to invite bad luck or disrespect the divine order.
- **Reason**: These names were seen as having protective power and should only be spoken with reverence in prayers or rituals.
---
### **4. The Name of the Devil**
- **Common Names**: The devil was known by many names, including **Satan**, **The Prince of Darkness**, and **The Evil One**.
- **Reason**: Speaking these names was thought to risk summoning the devil or his agents. Euphemisms like "The Adversary" or "The Enemy" were often used instead.
---
### **5. Pagan Deities**
- **Context**: With the Christianization of Europe, the names of old pagan gods were sometimes avoided for fear of accidentally invoking their influence or seeming to worship them.
- **Examples**: Names like **Odin**, **Thor**, or **Diana** might have been treated with suspicion in Christian communities.
- **Reason**: These names represented "false gods" in Christian theology, and speaking them might be seen as heretical or spiritually dangerous.
---
### **6. The Antichrist**
- **Context**: Speculative names for the Antichrist, who was seen as the ultimate enemy of Christ, were avoided.
- **Reason**: Even speculating on the Antichrist’s identity could be considered blasphemous or heretical.
---
### **7. The Name of Death**
- **Context**: In folklore, names associated with Death or the Grim Reaper were avoided. Euphemisms like "the Pale Rider" or "the End" were used instead.
- **Reason**: Saying "Death" directly was thought to draw its attention or hasten misfortune.
---
### Why Did They Avoid Saying These Names?
- **Belief in Words as Power**: Medieval thought held that words and names had intrinsic power. Speaking a name could summon, invoke, or give dominion over the entity it referred to.
- **Superstition and Fear**: Many people believed in the real and immediate presence of spiritual forces in their lives.
- **Social and Religious Norms**: Church teachings reinforced the idea that certain names or words were sacred and not to be spoken lightly.
These taboos reflect a deep respect and fear of the unknown and the supernatural, common in medieval culture.
"Acolytes of the Evil One would have you believe that worship of golf course architecture leads to insights on homicide patterns," thundered the accredited journalist from his K Street pulpit. "But it's just not true!"
Steve - I’ve long been sold on your George Floyd explanation for the 2020 jump in Deaths of Exuberance as you usefully call it. Basically a sudden shift in social expectations of normative behaviour.
But I also try to be consciously wary of monocausal thinking that most people engage in, even myself.
Anyway I don’t live in the US but quite honestly mid-March to mid-May 2020 was the weirdest time of my adult life.
It didn’t drive me homicidal but it was a profound disruption to the pattern of normal life for almost everyone. So I could buy an explanation - and I haven’t heard a plausible one yet - that the lockdowns caused *some* % of the increase in large-scale misbehaviour that you first noticed.
>”It's culture. Underclass culture, especially among blacks. Crime and violence are a way of life.”
>”It's because democrats fought tooth-and-nail to empty out the jails in every major city at a time when police forces were severely understaffed and far less proactive, and when the courts had slowed to a crawl.”
>”This article is rooted in what criminologists call "routine activities theory". If more people are out and about, there will be more crime. It is not at all controversial. It explains why crime goes up in the summer and down in the winter.
What Bump leaves out is that the majority of excess murder were committed by blacks, and so race remains a plausible explanatory factor.”
I greatly enjoyed this ridiculing of race relations leftist propaganda and policies. I posted a link to this article and another comparing FBI and CDC reports on an article in the Free Press (also in Substack), where the author bought into the Brookings Institute propaganda.
We just had a case of the Sailer Law of Mass Shootings in Towson, MD. Outside a funeral parlor, nine were wounded and one killed in a mass shooting. Towson was once a choice suburb for the Baltimore elite but proximity to Baltimore City and Section 8 housing has led to a decline in the city of Towson. As of 2020, Towson's white population had dropped to 66 %.
Disparate impact appears to have impacted (I could have said “bumped”) Mr. Bump’s reasoning.
Sad to say, Donald Trump was a leader in the move to depopulate the prisons just before 2020. More bad people hit the streets in the months leading up to the 2020 shutdown of the economy and the George Floyd conflagrations. Black mayhem is just one of those things Americans have to get used to just like mosquitos in the summer, massive snowfalls off the Great Lakes in the winter, weeds in the garden and liberal nanny-staters explaining how they can remake the world into a paradise.
All of these talking around the real issue explanations essentially come down to the idea that unless blacks are living in the most controlled conditions they turn into homicidal maniacs, which people like Bump deep down believe but cannot say explicitly. Onset of summer? Naturally blacks go crazy in the heat. Looser gun laws in Indiana than Chicago? Those IN guns magically migrate to the south and west sides and into the hands of scholars turned shooters. Less work available for low skill blacks? One cannot expect them to do anything other than turn to murder as opposed to maybe help out around the house or offer to do small jobs for family and neighbors.
In the end, the left does sincerely believe blacks are a unique and extremely hard to govern subset of the population and they need stuff like work to keep them out of trouble. Rather than recognize that the influx of legal and illegal immigrants they embraced turned millions of blacks into only loosely or not at all employed people was a social disaster, it's make-work summer jobs programs, rec centers, and hip hop poetry contests. How's that working out?
In Washington DC with its large black population, virtually none work in construction. Why? Hispanics work much harder and are much more reliable.
This is true everywhere - Latinos are cheaper and harder working. Blacks used to be a big presence in drywall and painting trades, now they are virtually non-existent. I have talked to black guys that own construction-oriented businesses and they all have said they wished they could hire other blacks but as one said "I have a business to run and I need to make money."
Blacks really shot themselves in the foot when it came to their unbelievable loyalty to the Democratic party. 30 or 40 years ago black politicians recognized large scale immigration was a threat to their constituents' jobs, and if the CBC had put their foot down 15 years ago on immigration they probably would have gotten what they wanted. I think many eventually drank the Kool-Aid on the argument that more diversity of any kind was good because they would all unite against whites under the Dem banner and have an unassailable grip on power. That sort of ignored the rather obvious reality that each major ethnic group has their own interests and priorities and no one other than prog whites are willing to surrender their own in favor of black demands.
The son of the owner of the building I had my business in Washington used to do build-outs with a black crew. He was a very liberal Jew. But he once told me that without Hispanic construction workers, nothing could be built in Washington.
Most American blacks are just fine, so I think you mean that a relatively large proportion of American blacks are feral, for feral people need relatively authoritarian and controlled social conditions.
I agree that race relations leftists implicitly have no faith in American black's culture to heal itself of the feral-ness problem, but leftists in general in the USA and other countries make matters worse by decreasing various kinds of social controls and by allowing excessive immigration.
The other trick he pulls (aside from arbitrary start and end dates) is wide x-axis combined with drawing straight lines between (what I assume are) discrete weekly data points. It makes it look like the spike in murders on the day of Floyd's death was an upward trend from the week before.
It looks like the week of Floyd's death was the peak in 2019 while in 2020 murders continued upwards.
Both graphs, though Sailers to a much lesser extent, invite the viewer to engage in the same semi-mystical pattern viewing that leads technical investors astray.
I'm not super deep on stats, but surely there is some (or some set of) standard technique(s) to detect when a change in time series data has occurred. Until Bump runs those he can't assert that the data support his position. If you eliminate his dotted lines optical illusion, I think the naive technical investor analysis supports Steve's version better than his.
It occurs to me what you want to do is subtract the average seasonal variation from the 2020 curve. For each week, average the murders fro say 2015-2019, and subtract that from the murders for the same week from 2020. Then you should be able to eyeball when/if the unusual thing happened.
> The other trick [Bump] pulls is...
¡Blacks! must be front-and-center in every analysis...
Brookings and Bump misdirect by omission. They fail to include the race of the perpetrator in their time-series graphs, allowing the noise in the white data to swamp the signal in the black data.
... except when they must be ignored.
Also I asked chatGPT for an explanation about Bump failing to mention Steve Sailer. If you say his name, you might summon him:
Yes, medieval people believed that certain names or words carried such power or sanctity that speaking them could have dire consequences or unintended effects. This idea stemmed from widespread beliefs about the power of words and names to summon or influence supernatural forces. Here are some examples of names or phrases that were considered taboo or dangerous to utter:
---
### **1. The Name of God (Tetragrammaton)**
- **Context**: In Jewish and Christian traditions, the name of God, represented by the four Hebrew letters **YHWH**, was considered too sacred to be spoken aloud. Instead, substitutes like "Adonai" (Lord) or "Dominus" were used.
- **Reason**: Saying the name improperly was thought to risk divine wrath or to profane its sanctity.
- This practice influenced medieval Christians, who also avoided direct invocation of God's name outside formal prayers.
---
### **2. Names of Demons and Evil Spirits**
- **Context**: Names of demons or malevolent entities were often avoided to prevent inadvertently summoning them. Examples include:
- **Lucifer**: The fallen angel associated with Satan.
- **Beelzebub**, **Asmodeus**, and other demonic figures named in grimoires or religious texts.
- **Reason**: It was believed that saying a demon's name gave it power or called its attention to the speaker.
---
### **3. Saints or Angels' Names in Vain**
- **Context**: Invoking the names of saints or angels lightly or improperly was thought to invite bad luck or disrespect the divine order.
- **Reason**: These names were seen as having protective power and should only be spoken with reverence in prayers or rituals.
---
### **4. The Name of the Devil**
- **Common Names**: The devil was known by many names, including **Satan**, **The Prince of Darkness**, and **The Evil One**.
- **Reason**: Speaking these names was thought to risk summoning the devil or his agents. Euphemisms like "The Adversary" or "The Enemy" were often used instead.
---
### **5. Pagan Deities**
- **Context**: With the Christianization of Europe, the names of old pagan gods were sometimes avoided for fear of accidentally invoking their influence or seeming to worship them.
- **Examples**: Names like **Odin**, **Thor**, or **Diana** might have been treated with suspicion in Christian communities.
- **Reason**: These names represented "false gods" in Christian theology, and speaking them might be seen as heretical or spiritually dangerous.
---
### **6. The Antichrist**
- **Context**: Speculative names for the Antichrist, who was seen as the ultimate enemy of Christ, were avoided.
- **Reason**: Even speculating on the Antichrist’s identity could be considered blasphemous or heretical.
---
### **7. The Name of Death**
- **Context**: In folklore, names associated with Death or the Grim Reaper were avoided. Euphemisms like "the Pale Rider" or "the End" were used instead.
- **Reason**: Saying "Death" directly was thought to draw its attention or hasten misfortune.
---
### Why Did They Avoid Saying These Names?
- **Belief in Words as Power**: Medieval thought held that words and names had intrinsic power. Speaking a name could summon, invoke, or give dominion over the entity it referred to.
- **Superstition and Fear**: Many people believed in the real and immediate presence of spiritual forces in their lives.
- **Social and Religious Norms**: Church teachings reinforced the idea that certain names or words were sacred and not to be spoken lightly.
These taboos reflect a deep respect and fear of the unknown and the supernatural, common in medieval culture.
"Acolytes of the Evil One would have you believe that worship of golf course architecture leads to insights on homicide patterns," thundered the accredited journalist from his K Street pulpit. "But it's just not true!"
Speak not of dread Demographogorgon, lest he appear.
Steve - I’ve long been sold on your George Floyd explanation for the 2020 jump in Deaths of Exuberance as you usefully call it. Basically a sudden shift in social expectations of normative behaviour.
But I also try to be consciously wary of monocausal thinking that most people engage in, even myself.
Anyway I don’t live in the US but quite honestly mid-March to mid-May 2020 was the weirdest time of my adult life.
It didn’t drive me homicidal but it was a profound disruption to the pattern of normal life for almost everyone. So I could buy an explanation - and I haven’t heard a plausible one yet - that the lockdowns caused *some* % of the increase in large-scale misbehaviour that you first noticed.
They hate you worse that the Devil hates holy water, Steve.
That means you're blessed (and they're damned). Nice work.
We need to start pairing the victims of BLM endorsed policies with an individual who did the endorsing.
Philip Bump you are responsible for the death of Tamika Foster. 23 of St. Paul, MN.
Comments at the WaPo article:
>”It's culture. Underclass culture, especially among blacks. Crime and violence are a way of life.”
>”It's because democrats fought tooth-and-nail to empty out the jails in every major city at a time when police forces were severely understaffed and far less proactive, and when the courts had slowed to a crawl.”
>”This article is rooted in what criminologists call "routine activities theory". If more people are out and about, there will be more crime. It is not at all controversial. It explains why crime goes up in the summer and down in the winter.
What Bump leaves out is that the majority of excess murder were committed by blacks, and so race remains a plausible explanatory factor.”
"FBI data suggests that 69 percent of murders were committed by men"
Only 69%? Why aren't there more women in prison? Or is it that male perps are known to commit 69% and the rest are by females and sex unknown?
Yeah that's strange. Has to be 85%.
Keep pounding away Steve. I know it seems implausible, but eventually your voice will be heard.
On Twitter, Crémieux posts a thread with a deeper dive into May 2020's jump in antisocial behaviors such as, say, homicides.
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1869563321860461009
Rigorous analysis supports Sailer's perspective.
Brookings' and Bump's claims fail to hold water.
I greatly enjoyed this ridiculing of race relations leftist propaganda and policies. I posted a link to this article and another comparing FBI and CDC reports on an article in the Free Press (also in Substack), where the author bought into the Brookings Institute propaganda.
For those interested, here is a link to the deceptively serious-looking post on the Brookings web site. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-did-u-s-homicides-spike-in-2020-and-then-decline-rapidly-in-2023-and-2024/
The moderate leftists don't say who they are trying to argue with nor give a link to this web site because they are afraid of Steve Sailer.