I was wondering why I have so little to say about Chinese current events, so I watched this newscast of the excellent Chinese Olympic team applauding supreme comrade Xi for two minutes straight.
Chinese people are 100x more interested in China than they are in every other country combined. It's not that China is boring; it's that you don't understand it. Fair enough: why would you?
The US will no more get directly involved in the inevitable reunification of China and Taiwan than in the war in Ukraine. Any president that sends troops in harm’s way to protect Taiwan would be immediately impeached.
> "The US will no more get directly involved in the inevitable reunification of China and Taiwan than in the war in Ukraine."
Uh oh. That leaves an awful lot of room for involvement: unlimited funding and intel plus most of the US weapons inventory.
While I agree ground troops are (probably) off the table*, the US Navy and Air Force are gonna get involved: the guy currently in the Oval Office has said so.
This is actually worse than losing a few deniable special forces in foreign uniforms: losing a US carrier with most of its crew would mean the US is psychologically committed to the fight. Steve likes to quote Ben Franklin to the effect of doing a favor for someone makes you more invested than if they did a favor for you.
Well, sacrificing an aircraft carrier is a pretty big favor.
Also, note that no US presidential impeachment has resulted in a conviction, so while impeachment is a PR distraction, it hasn't actually changed policy.
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* US & NATO ground troops (typically "sheep dipped" special forces) are involved in the Ukraine, so "no more than Ukraine" technically does indeed include ground troops.
Almost: And we will be just as effective in preventing China from taking over Taiwan as we were in preventing the ultimate loss of the Donbas in Ukraine which you may have noticed has already occurred. I think you misread the willingness of the American people to sacrifice large numbers of her increasingly rare children in unwinnable wars far from our shores. Once we develop some chip building capability we will no longer need Taiwan any more than we needed South Vietnam. Remember that war? I do.
I agree that if China really wants it, the US can't prevent it. But as with the Donbas, that won't stop the US government geniuses from trying, and using the US military for that quixotic task. The US military's all-volunteer servicemembers may not think that their enlistment pledge obliges them to do that, but it does.
I don't think China really will invade militarily because they know they're gonna get Taiwan and a whole bunch else besides just by letting the Liberal World Order carry on with its very public suicide.
Even if the Taiwan situation turned hot for some reason, the world might discover that it didn't really need 2nm chips nearly so much as breathless industry press accounts imply. The vast majority of everything digital does not run on bleeding-edge circuity, and the few applications that really use it (e.g. AI) are mostly vaporware and hype.
> I don't think China really will invade militarily because they know they're gonna get Taiwan and a whole bunch else besides just by letting the Liberal World Order carry on with its very public suicide.
China has it's own public suicide problem. Hint: look at its demographics.
Yeah, people say that, but from what I've seen of China, children are more common there *per capita* than in the US and certainly than Europe. I know that statistics say otherwise, but it sure doesn't look like there is child shortage on China's streets, urban or rural.
No one takes China's GDP statistics at face value, so why should anyone take their demography stats at face value? Perhaps the bureaucrats who collect them have incentives left over from the One Child Policy era, so they deliberately lowball.
Irrespective of the veracity of China's stats, when you have 1300 million, you can afford to shed a few—or a few hundred—million and be no worse for wear, and possibly better off. Crucially, they are *not* committing the West's error and backfilling the natives with hostile and parasitical foreigners, nor do they have an excessive and unwieldy welfare state, so if a few foreigners show up , if they don't contribute, they don't eat.
Whether China's population is rising or falling, their immigration policy is sound, so they do not suffer the risk the West does.
"a president is more likely to get impeached for not intervening once the geopolitical consequences of inaction become obvious."
The geopolitical consequences of inaction if China invades Taiwan will obviously not, I expect, be different than the the geopolitical consequences of obviously hopel;ess "action" if China does so. You think some president is going to be impeached for (a) not throwing nukes at China or (b) not sending carriers to get sunk? I don't think so.
Actually, it is. It's not obviously a compelling prospect for Red China. but the US ability to stop it if Red China goes ahead with an invasion is pretty near zero absent an all-out nuclear exchange.
Logistics. How far is Taiwan from China and how far is it from the US? Amphibious assaults may be "difficult" rather than easy, but have any failed since Dieppe (which was anyway never more than a raid)? You just don't launch one without overwhelming local resources, which China has.
As a non-American I try to watch the State of the Union address occasionally and I switch off because the clapping and choreography really grates. Looks a bit like the above TBH.
China is fascinating. It’s gone from mass poverty to producing cutting-edge products in less than two generations.
But as you implied its politics is all behind closed door and it provides very little of cultural interest. I think this will change when China becomes another high-income East Asian country. Japan does have cultural exports (manga, Pokémon, video games) that are very popular even if ignored by elite cultural critics in the West. Likewise for Korea with boy bands.
> "As a non-American I try to watch the State of the Union address occasionally and I switch off because the clapping and choreography really grates."
As an American, the clapping and choreography grate on me even more. You can just discount it as "peculiar customs of foreigners". I have to share my country and government with these people.
Don't get me started about a Netanyahu speech to Congress... Now I have to share my government with people who aren't even in my country. And they get the lion's share.
You arer a loon. Netanyahu is not getting the lion's share of the US government. He is mostly getting his freedom of action interfered with by the US government.
I find China fascinating, but some countries do this to individuals. Mexico is right next to the United States and might be more important to the U.S. than any other country in the world, yet I haven't read a single history or contemporary political book on the country.
I have nothing at all to say about Chinese current events. This is because I don't know Chinese.
If I did, I might be bored. I got bored with things that are in Slovene. Never did get bored with things that are in Portuguese, though. There's no explaining this. It is an American luxury to be able to treat cultures as hobbies. Cultures are interesting or - more precisely - important only to the extent you let 'em be those things.
If I knew Chinese, I might actually go to the country and listen to what Chinese themselves say about it. Maybe they routinely speak of glory. That might be a jolt. On the other hand, if I ever went to China, I might just stake out consulates and see how many people are lined up outside 'em waiting to get visas to go someplace else, anyplace else. That would be instructive. I will note that the one American consulate I ever visited, in Brazil, had a lot of bulletproof glass and almost no customers.
The real issue with Taiwan is Chinese domestic politics. If an ethnic Chinese country can be independent of the central government it might give Chinese the wrong idea -- especially if it's a nicer place to live.
Holding China together has always been the overriding concern of China's leaders. Hence the constant displays of unity promoted by the state (like the above clapping olympians).
It isn't an easy job. Chinese are just as full of human passions, aspirations and desires as everyone else.
Btw, China is way more interesting than Xi's regime lets on.
It's incredible if you think about it. Not a one with a vote. Considered second-class people worldwide. Ruled by the potential bullets from the barrels of a guns solely possessed by the Chinese Communist Party. Ruled by neo-colonialist bullies. Blood-dopers and cheaters. Not a frown in the crowd, all bowing, all submissive, all clapping obediently. And yet only one in thirteen a Communist Party member. Like North Korea only bigger. Reminds me of Americans that don't recognize they're slaves to ZOG.
Your complaint showed up in my email so the brain functionality displayed by your claim that I had to track you down is about what I'd expect from you. And, yes, dealing with you IS quite dreary but I'd prefer the stink not reach Unz-like levels. I don't have the power of the state to do to you what I'd enjoy doing to you, so stop whining.
I don’t know about the US, but we have lots of “Chinese government interference in Canada.” It even has a Wikipedia page.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_government_interference_in_Canada
It includes clandestine Chinese police stations and federal election interference.
I don’t find it boring. I imagine they’re trying in the US too but there’s lots more competition and you don’t have as many Chinese immigrants.
"...you don’t have as many Chinese immigrants."
This claim is based on what?
Chinese people are 100x more interested in China than they are in every other country combined. It's not that China is boring; it's that you don't understand it. Fair enough: why would you?
The US will no more get directly involved in the inevitable reunification of China and Taiwan than in the war in Ukraine. Any president that sends troops in harm’s way to protect Taiwan would be immediately impeached.
> "The US will no more get directly involved in the inevitable reunification of China and Taiwan than in the war in Ukraine."
Uh oh. That leaves an awful lot of room for involvement: unlimited funding and intel plus most of the US weapons inventory.
While I agree ground troops are (probably) off the table*, the US Navy and Air Force are gonna get involved: the guy currently in the Oval Office has said so.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59005300
This is actually worse than losing a few deniable special forces in foreign uniforms: losing a US carrier with most of its crew would mean the US is psychologically committed to the fight. Steve likes to quote Ben Franklin to the effect of doing a favor for someone makes you more invested than if they did a favor for you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Franklin_effect
Well, sacrificing an aircraft carrier is a pretty big favor.
Also, note that no US presidential impeachment has resulted in a conviction, so while impeachment is a PR distraction, it hasn't actually changed policy.
---------
* US & NATO ground troops (typically "sheep dipped" special forces) are involved in the Ukraine, so "no more than Ukraine" technically does indeed include ground troops.
Almost: And we will be just as effective in preventing China from taking over Taiwan as we were in preventing the ultimate loss of the Donbas in Ukraine which you may have noticed has already occurred. I think you misread the willingness of the American people to sacrifice large numbers of her increasingly rare children in unwinnable wars far from our shores. Once we develop some chip building capability we will no longer need Taiwan any more than we needed South Vietnam. Remember that war? I do.
I agree that if China really wants it, the US can't prevent it. But as with the Donbas, that won't stop the US government geniuses from trying, and using the US military for that quixotic task. The US military's all-volunteer servicemembers may not think that their enlistment pledge obliges them to do that, but it does.
I don't think China really will invade militarily because they know they're gonna get Taiwan and a whole bunch else besides just by letting the Liberal World Order carry on with its very public suicide.
Even if the Taiwan situation turned hot for some reason, the world might discover that it didn't really need 2nm chips nearly so much as breathless industry press accounts imply. The vast majority of everything digital does not run on bleeding-edge circuity, and the few applications that really use it (e.g. AI) are mostly vaporware and hype.
> I don't think China really will invade militarily because they know they're gonna get Taiwan and a whole bunch else besides just by letting the Liberal World Order carry on with its very public suicide.
China has it's own public suicide problem. Hint: look at its demographics.
Yeah, people say that, but from what I've seen of China, children are more common there *per capita* than in the US and certainly than Europe. I know that statistics say otherwise, but it sure doesn't look like there is child shortage on China's streets, urban or rural.
No one takes China's GDP statistics at face value, so why should anyone take their demography stats at face value? Perhaps the bureaucrats who collect them have incentives left over from the One Child Policy era, so they deliberately lowball.
Irrespective of the veracity of China's stats, when you have 1300 million, you can afford to shed a few—or a few hundred—million and be no worse for wear, and possibly better off. Crucially, they are *not* committing the West's error and backfilling the natives with hostile and parasitical foreigners, nor do they have an excessive and unwieldy welfare state, so if a few foreigners show up , if they don't contribute, they don't eat.
Whether China's population is rising or falling, their immigration policy is sound, so they do not suffer the risk the West does.
> may we all continue to live in uninteresting times.
Not going to happen.
2020s carrier task force in the Western Pacific <-> 1942 <i>Prince of Wales</i> off Malaya.
Never mind Agree or Disagree -- What percentage of American voters know what I'm referring to?
Probably fewer than a quarter, but rising to half or more among white men of good character.
> Any president that sends troops in harm’s way to protect Taiwan would be immediately impeached.
I find this claim rather dubious.
Heck, a president is more likely to get impeached for not intervening once the geopolitical consequences of inaction become obvious.
Eugene: You are right he/she would more likely end up like LBJ. Remember him? I do.
What about him? He had some extremely bad domestic policies. Also had the problem that his party was full of commie sympathizers.
"a president is more likely to get impeached for not intervening once the geopolitical consequences of inaction become obvious."
The geopolitical consequences of inaction if China invades Taiwan will obviously not, I expect, be different than the the geopolitical consequences of obviously hopel;ess "action" if China does so. You think some president is going to be impeached for (a) not throwing nukes at China or (b) not sending carriers to get sunk? I don't think so.
It's not at all obviously hopeless.
Actually, it is. It's not obviously a compelling prospect for Red China. but the US ability to stop it if Red China goes ahead with an invasion is pretty near zero absent an all-out nuclear exchange.
Um, amphibious assaults are among the most difficult of military operations. I don't see why it would be impossible to stop one.
Logistics. How far is Taiwan from China and how far is it from the US? Amphibious assaults may be "difficult" rather than easy, but have any failed since Dieppe (which was anyway never more than a raid)? You just don't launch one without overwhelming local resources, which China has.
No one's reached out to pay you?
Pay who for what?
This probably could have been a note instead of an article.
LOL Steve's gotta eat
that's what i think about every third post from him! the other two posts are worth it, though.
As a non-American I try to watch the State of the Union address occasionally and I switch off because the clapping and choreography really grates. Looks a bit like the above TBH.
China is fascinating. It’s gone from mass poverty to producing cutting-edge products in less than two generations.
But as you implied its politics is all behind closed door and it provides very little of cultural interest. I think this will change when China becomes another high-income East Asian country. Japan does have cultural exports (manga, Pokémon, video games) that are very popular even if ignored by elite cultural critics in the West. Likewise for Korea with boy bands.
> "As a non-American I try to watch the State of the Union address occasionally and I switch off because the clapping and choreography really grates."
As an American, the clapping and choreography grate on me even more. You can just discount it as "peculiar customs of foreigners". I have to share my country and government with these people.
Don't get me started about a Netanyahu speech to Congress... Now I have to share my government with people who aren't even in my country. And they get the lion's share.
You arer a loon. Netanyahu is not getting the lion's share of the US government. He is mostly getting his freedom of action interfered with by the US government.
Such as?
I find China fascinating, but some countries do this to individuals. Mexico is right next to the United States and might be more important to the U.S. than any other country in the world, yet I haven't read a single history or contemporary political book on the country.
I have nothing at all to say about Chinese current events. This is because I don't know Chinese.
If I did, I might be bored. I got bored with things that are in Slovene. Never did get bored with things that are in Portuguese, though. There's no explaining this. It is an American luxury to be able to treat cultures as hobbies. Cultures are interesting or - more precisely - important only to the extent you let 'em be those things.
If I knew Chinese, I might actually go to the country and listen to what Chinese themselves say about it. Maybe they routinely speak of glory. That might be a jolt. On the other hand, if I ever went to China, I might just stake out consulates and see how many people are lined up outside 'em waiting to get visas to go someplace else, anyplace else. That would be instructive. I will note that the one American consulate I ever visited, in Brazil, had a lot of bulletproof glass and almost no customers.
The real issue with Taiwan is Chinese domestic politics. If an ethnic Chinese country can be independent of the central government it might give Chinese the wrong idea -- especially if it's a nicer place to live.
Holding China together has always been the overriding concern of China's leaders. Hence the constant displays of unity promoted by the state (like the above clapping olympians).
It isn't an easy job. Chinese are just as full of human passions, aspirations and desires as everyone else.
Btw, China is way more interesting than Xi's regime lets on.
It's incredible if you think about it. Not a one with a vote. Considered second-class people worldwide. Ruled by the potential bullets from the barrels of a guns solely possessed by the Chinese Communist Party. Ruled by neo-colonialist bullies. Blood-dopers and cheaters. Not a frown in the crowd, all bowing, all submissive, all clapping obediently. And yet only one in thirteen a Communist Party member. Like North Korea only bigger. Reminds me of Americans that don't recognize they're slaves to ZOG.
> "Chinese Olympic team applauding supreme comrade Xi for two minutes straight."
Yes, so boring...
https://i.ibb.co/Y7mFcxd/bibi-claps-nocrop-w536-h2147483647.gif
You're an obsessive loon.
I'm not the one tracking down someone else's comments and posting ad hominems after them. That would be you.
I don't track you down. Your comments pop up as I read down the thread and the faimiliar ghastly smell calls for a response.
> "I don't track you down."
Yet here you are again.
> "Your comments pop up as I read down the thread and the faimiliar [sic] ghastly smell calls for a response.""
Ah yes, the dreary duty of the Volunteer Auxiliary Thought Policeman.
Your complaint showed up in my email so the brain functionality displayed by your claim that I had to track you down is about what I'd expect from you. And, yes, dealing with you IS quite dreary but I'd prefer the stink not reach Unz-like levels. I don't have the power of the state to do to you what I'd enjoy doing to you, so stop whining.
May you live in interesting times
May you be recognized by people in high places (sometimes also reported as: May you attract the attention of the government)
May you find what you’re looking for (often heard as “be careful what you wish for… it may just come true…”)