The last graph describes my neighborhood. White, upper middle class, used to be GOP territory but now Dem city councilor, state rep, state senator, and congressman although the CD includes the central city. Multiple “in this house” yard signs visible on my normal route for walking the dog, Kamala yard signs probably 4:1 versus Trump. Thankfully I live in a red state, which makes it easier to live in a blue city. I would say a lot of the GOP holdouts are Catholic.
Those northern Maine French Canadian towns you listed are all Acadian French, not Quebecois. Unlike most French Canadians in the US, they didn't come down from Quebec to work in the mills in the late 19th-early 20th centuries. The Acadians have been there in the St. John Valley since the British expelled them from Nova Scotia in the mid-18th century. (See Longfellow's Evangeline for details.) That area didn't even become part of the US until 1842. I have no idea how that history affects their votes in 2024, but I'd be careful about assuming that they're similar to the other, much more numerous French Canadians who settled in the cities and mill towns of New England. Because they settled in more populated places over a century ago, it's probably a lot harder to find precincts with large concentrations of them.
I know Woonsocket has lots of French Canadians. Are many of them Acadian? Evidently Acadian and Quebecois surnames are quite distinct, and many of them are now rare in France itself, so it's possible to distinguish them. Gregory Clark used that to trace outcomes over many generations.
"I don't think Darien (quite a swing) is going back to R after Trump."
Right. I have four CT-douchey-prepster but amusing non-blood-relation male first cousins (it's complicated) who grew up in Darien, two of whom now live in nearby Rowayton. These are not deep thinkers, easily swayed by localized groupthink which I imagine they mostly absorb while wearing Oakley sunglasses on their friends' and each other's sailboats, and they're enthusiastically anti-Trump. So I'd guess that's the prevailing ortgeist around there, not likely to change any time soon.
Fascinating set of political statistics. It appears to me that Americans are sorting themselves out politically. Talbot County MD is unusual in that it was the most Republican county on Maryland's Eastern Shore for decades. Nixon won it with 75 % in 1972, Reagan won it with 71 % in 1984, even the pathetic Bob Dole won it with 54 % in 1996. But Talbot since 1996 has been a place where liberals with big money began buying up estates in Easton, St. Michael's, Oxford, Bozman and increasingly Tilghman Island, a long time crabbing/oystering village. Easton itself is increasingly liberal trendy with elite restaurants and a large hospital(health workers trend very liberal practically everywhere). Today, Talbot is a swing county. Trump defeated Kamala Harris by six votes in 2024 and Joe Biden defeated Trump by a little over 100 votes in 2020. I reckon Trump won all the interior precincts in Talbot County where small businessmen and workmen live while Kamala Harris won Easton, St. Michael's and Oxford. The pre-eminent Republican county on the Eastern Shore is white-flight Queen Anne's County.
A suggestion for our host. Check the politics of cities/counties with large hospitals. Hospitals tend not only to be hot-beds of liberalism but they are very bureaucratic. Bureaucrats are strongly leftist.
Trump is an unusual candidate. His manner gets to a lot of people. Even if the republican party shifts to his policy positions, the next candidate could have a Romney or a Nixon temperament and all these stats would change. It's hard to believe that many mentally competent people were voting for Harris. They were voting against Trump.
The key lesson here is that a candidate who violates the established norms of discourse will most offend his well off approximate co-ethnics.
I live in eastern West Virginia. West Virginia is much more pro-Trump than it is pro-Republican. Yet Republicans have massive majorities in the legislature. West Virginia had large Democratic majorities twenty years ago. But the national Democratic Party went full-throated lunatic and Robert Byrd finally died.
Either one, or a group of Armenian businessmen in Glendale CA bought one of the original, ultra-deco flagship locations of Bob's Big Boy, demolished it, an built a liquor store cum tobacco emporium. Ugly, thoughtless, totally devoted to the almighty dollar. That old Bob's was a perfectly maintained bit of SoCal Americana. Gone in sixty seconds. Life goes on...
I live in one of the trending blue cities in Washington state. It's due to relocating Seattlites who can't stomach moving/retiring to a red state for cheaper housing (and to flee the mess they made in King County).
These people won't stop voting Democrat until they've left this world -- and maybe not even then.
This is good work. I'd love to see the actual breaks at the precinct level. I'd also like to look down ballot at the switch and swings, see the turnout changes, and see it all on maps. I used to do this professionally. Thanks for the excellent summary.
When the old WASPs finally get fed up, it will be like the Ents coming to the rescue in Lord of the Rings.
The last graph describes my neighborhood. White, upper middle class, used to be GOP territory but now Dem city councilor, state rep, state senator, and congressman although the CD includes the central city. Multiple “in this house” yard signs visible on my normal route for walking the dog, Kamala yard signs probably 4:1 versus Trump. Thankfully I live in a red state, which makes it easier to live in a blue city. I would say a lot of the GOP holdouts are Catholic.
Those northern Maine French Canadian towns you listed are all Acadian French, not Quebecois. Unlike most French Canadians in the US, they didn't come down from Quebec to work in the mills in the late 19th-early 20th centuries. The Acadians have been there in the St. John Valley since the British expelled them from Nova Scotia in the mid-18th century. (See Longfellow's Evangeline for details.) That area didn't even become part of the US until 1842. I have no idea how that history affects their votes in 2024, but I'd be careful about assuming that they're similar to the other, much more numerous French Canadians who settled in the cities and mill towns of New England. Because they settled in more populated places over a century ago, it's probably a lot harder to find precincts with large concentrations of them.
I thought most of the Acadians ended up in Louisiana (could be wrong).
Some stayed in Maine. Others wandered down to Rhode Island (Woonsocket) and decided New Orleans was a long ride.
I know Woonsocket has lots of French Canadians. Are many of them Acadian? Evidently Acadian and Quebecois surnames are quite distinct, and many of them are now rare in France itself, so it's possible to distinguish them. Gregory Clark used that to trace outcomes over many generations.
Rhode Island is filled with French Canadians. To my brother's misfortune, he married one.
A bunch did. (Cajun is short for Acadian.) Some ended up back in France, others scattered in enclaves as far away as the Falkland Islands.
"New York, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area" PA but no CT? That can't be right.
I don't think Darien (quite a swing) is going back to R after Trump. I'm surprised Asheville is less than 6% majority D.
"I don't think Darien (quite a swing) is going back to R after Trump."
Right. I have four CT-douchey-prepster but amusing non-blood-relation male first cousins (it's complicated) who grew up in Darien, two of whom now live in nearby Rowayton. These are not deep thinkers, easily swayed by localized groupthink which I imagine they mostly absorb while wearing Oakley sunglasses on their friends' and each other's sailboats, and they're enthusiastically anti-Trump. So I'd guess that's the prevailing ortgeist around there, not likely to change any time soon.
I'm willing to guess that the city of Asheville is very Democratic but the surrounding countryside is Republican.
Yes, Wikipedia says Asheville is only 95k, smaller than I thought, but growing rapidly. The 400k+ metro area contains 4 counties.
Anecdotally, the non-Jewish Persians I know (my nieces/nephews/in-laws and their friends, basically) have also shifted quite a bit to the right.
In 2012, one of my (consistently Republican) wife's sisters texted her to rub in that Obama won; in 2024 that same sister was sharing pro-Trump memes.
I sat at the Armenian table at a Jewish wedding recently--very vocally pro-Trump
Wasps aren’t making many wasplets lately. Nannies are expensive and the Swedish au pair is too tempting.
Fascinating set of political statistics. It appears to me that Americans are sorting themselves out politically. Talbot County MD is unusual in that it was the most Republican county on Maryland's Eastern Shore for decades. Nixon won it with 75 % in 1972, Reagan won it with 71 % in 1984, even the pathetic Bob Dole won it with 54 % in 1996. But Talbot since 1996 has been a place where liberals with big money began buying up estates in Easton, St. Michael's, Oxford, Bozman and increasingly Tilghman Island, a long time crabbing/oystering village. Easton itself is increasingly liberal trendy with elite restaurants and a large hospital(health workers trend very liberal practically everywhere). Today, Talbot is a swing county. Trump defeated Kamala Harris by six votes in 2024 and Joe Biden defeated Trump by a little over 100 votes in 2020. I reckon Trump won all the interior precincts in Talbot County where small businessmen and workmen live while Kamala Harris won Easton, St. Michael's and Oxford. The pre-eminent Republican county on the Eastern Shore is white-flight Queen Anne's County.
Lawfare, pandemic measures, taxes, WFH, and DEI are pushing a Great Sorting.
A suggestion for our host. Check the politics of cities/counties with large hospitals. Hospitals tend not only to be hot-beds of liberalism but they are very bureaucratic. Bureaucrats are strongly leftist.
Trump is an unusual candidate. His manner gets to a lot of people. Even if the republican party shifts to his policy positions, the next candidate could have a Romney or a Nixon temperament and all these stats would change. It's hard to believe that many mentally competent people were voting for Harris. They were voting against Trump.
The key lesson here is that a candidate who violates the established norms of discourse will most offend his well off approximate co-ethnics.
I live in eastern West Virginia. West Virginia is much more pro-Trump than it is pro-Republican. Yet Republicans have massive majorities in the legislature. West Virginia had large Democratic majorities twenty years ago. But the national Democratic Party went full-throated lunatic and Robert Byrd finally died.
Either one, or a group of Armenian businessmen in Glendale CA bought one of the original, ultra-deco flagship locations of Bob's Big Boy, demolished it, an built a liquor store cum tobacco emporium. Ugly, thoughtless, totally devoted to the almighty dollar. That old Bob's was a perfectly maintained bit of SoCal Americana. Gone in sixty seconds. Life goes on...
I go to the ancient Googie architecture Bob's Big Boy in Toluca Lake/Burbank. The food is bad, but the ambience isn't.
I live in one of the trending blue cities in Washington state. It's due to relocating Seattlites who can't stomach moving/retiring to a red state for cheaper housing (and to flee the mess they made in King County).
These people won't stop voting Democrat until they've left this world -- and maybe not even then.
This is good work. I'd love to see the actual breaks at the precinct level. I'd also like to look down ballot at the switch and swings, see the turnout changes, and see it all on maps. I used to do this professionally. Thanks for the excellent summary.